Wednesday, 18 March 2020

Coronavirus pandemic 'could kill millions' in Iran


Stark warning from state TV comes as death toll in the country nears 1,000, with at least 16,000 confirmed cases.
Coronavirus pandemic 'could kill millions' in Iran
Iran is scrambling to contain the rapid spread of coronavirus which has infected around 16,000 people in the country [Vahid Salemi/AP]
Iran has issued its most dire warning yet about the new coronavirus outbreak ravaging the country, suggesting "millions" could die in the Islamic Republic if people keep travelling and ignore health advisories. 
A state television journalist, who is also a medical doctor, gave the warning on Tuesday citing a study by Tehran's prestigious Sharif University of Technology, which offered three scenarios regarding the COVID-19 outbreak in Iran, one of the deadliest outside China, where the illness originated.

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On Tuesday, 135 new coronavirus deaths took the country's overall toll to 988, as it curtailed celebrations for a fire festival in a bid to contain the disease.
Dr Afruz Eslami said if people begin to cooperate now, Iran will see 120,000 infections and 12,000 deaths before the outbreak is over. If they offer medium cooperation, there will be 300,000 cases and 110,000 deaths, she added.
But if people fail to follow any guidance, it could collapse Iran's already-strained medical system, Eslami said. If the "medical facilities are not sufficient, there will be four million cases, and 3.5 million people will die," she said. 
Eslami did not elaborate what metrics the study used, but reporting it on Iran's tightly controlled state TV represented a major change for a country whose officials had for days denied the severity of the crisis.
At least 12 Iranian politicians and officials, both sitting and former, have now died of the illness, and 13 more have been infected and are either in quarantine or being treated. 

No 'unnecessary' travel 

Iran has been scrambling to contain the rapid spread of the coronavirus which so far has infected some 16,000, including 1,178 new confirmed cases in the past 24 hours, according to the health ministry.
On Tuesday, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a religious ruling prohibiting "unnecessary" travel in the country.
It came as the public ignored repeated warnings and pleas from security forces. Iran has been urging people to stay home, but many have ignored the call.
Late on Monday night, angry crowds stormed into the courtyards of Mashhad's Imam Reza shrine and Qom's Fatima Masumeh shrine.
Crowds typically pray there 24 hours a day, seven days a week, touching and kissing the shrine. That has worried health officials, who for weeks ordered Iran's Shia clergy to close them.
On Monday, the state TV had announced the shrines' closure, sparking the demonstrations. 
Police later dispersed the crowds, state media reported. Religious authorities and a prominent Qom seminary called the demonstration an "insult" to the shrine in a statement, urging the faithful to rely on "wisdom and patience" amid the closure. 
Iran's shrines draw Shias from all over the Middle East for pilgrimages, likely contributing to the spread of the virus across the region. Saudi Arabia earlier closed off Islam's holiest sites over fear of the virus spreading.
In its latest attempt to contain the virus, Iranian police banned celebrations marking the traditional fire festival that comes before Nowruz - the Persian New Year.
However, since it announced its first two deaths in the holy city of Qom last month, Iran has yet to impose any lockdowns and the outbreak has spread to all 31 of the country's provinces.  

15 million screened

State TV reported that Iran had deployed teams to screen travellers leaving major cities in 13 provinces, including the capital, Tehran. 
The teams will check travellers' temperatures and send those with fever to quarantine centres. 
Apparently, in a bid to curb the spread of the virus, Iran released 85,000 prisoners on temporary leave, judiciary spokesman Gholamhossein Esmaili said on Tuesday. He said that the order included half of all "security-related" prisoners, without elaborating.
Among those released is Mohammad Hossein Karroubi, son of opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi, who was in jail for nearly two months.
Health ministry spokesman Kianoush Jahanpour said more than 15 million Iranians have been screened for symptoms, 
According to the health ministry, the trend of rising reported infections is due to the increasing number of tests being carried out.
Roughly nine out of 10 of the more than 18,000 cases of the new virus confirmed across the Middle East have come from Iran.
Countries across the Middle East have imposed sweeping travel restrictions, cancelled public events and called on non-essential businesses to close for the coming weeks.
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Israel and Iran agree: The struggle against coronavirus is a war effort


While both Israel and Iran are embarked on a national war against the virus, neither country appears to be ready to coordinate efforts.

Iranian women wear protective masks to prevent contracting coronavirus, as they walk in the street in Tehran, Iran February 25, 2020. (photo credit: NAZANIN TABATABAEE/WANA VIA REUTERS)
Iranian women wear protective masks to prevent contracting coronavirus, as they walk in the street in Tehran, Iran February 25, 2020.
(photo credit: NAZANIN TABATABAEE/WANA VIA REUTERS)
Israel is at war with an invisible enemy, says Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei has called for medical professionals on the frontline of the battle to be seen as “martyrs” in the struggle against coronavirus. Both Israel and Iran, rarely on the same side of issues, agree that the battle against the virus is akin to a national war.
In Iran, the war is being waged very differently than in Israel. Authorities first  downplayed the virus threat in February and let it spread from shrines in Qom to Tehran, where it affected many members of parliament and leaders of the country. Now Iran is taking the threat more seriously as more than 17,000 are infected and 1,100 are dead. “The experience we gain combating COVID-19 and the people’s sacrifices and activities that benefit the general public, are achievements that turn tragedies and threats into blessings and opportunities,” Khamenei said on March 16. 
Iran now views the virus as a form of biological warfare and has sent the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the army out to fight it. This means sometimes clearing streets, but often the government has not sought to lock down the country. Instead, schools have been closed and some events cancelled. Some shrines were shuttered, despite protests by the clerics. The armed forces are establishing medicalcenters and working to stop the spread of the disease.
In Israel, the national struggle has seen the use of digital technology usually reserved for fighting terror, put into service of tracking those who had the virus and helping the Health Ministry decide who to quarantine. Israel took the virus seriously early on in February and sought to stop travel from affected countries. “We must do everything, as a government and as citizens, to not become infected and not to infect others,” Netanyahu said on March 15. The government has sought to isolate the virus and not the whole country, but with the number of those infected climbing to more than 400 on Wednesday, it appears likely a lockdown is coming.
As in Iran, the military plays a significant role in Israel. The Defense Ministry and Home Front Command launched a hotel aimed to host coronaviruspatients on March 17. The hotel has separated situation rooms to enable surveillance and the police will aid in enforcing entry to the facility, the IDF says.
Iran and Israel both believe they have done more to defeat the virus than Western countries. Israel has acted with serious caution to quarantine people arriving from abroad and taken what appeared to be more extreme measures than countries such as Italy or the UK. In Iran, President Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday that Iran outdid Western states. “You can’t compare Iran to other states,” he said. “In those countries the shops are empty and people can’t get toilet paper.”
In Israel, Netanyahu says that the crux of the battle is before us still. It is a matter of life and death. “We have no intention of throwing up our hands. We have no intention of giving up. We will continue to struggle against the virus with all means and methods until we find relief.”
While both Israel and Iran have embarked on a national war against the virus, neither country appears to be ready to coordinate efforts. Many decades ago in the era before the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Jerusalem and Tehran had relations, and Israel was involved in medical projects with Iran. According to reports at the United States Institute of peace Israel aided Iran at the time in modernizing its medical sector.

Solve the refugee camps and you solve the refugee crisis


The refugee crisis is exacerbated by poorly designed camps and settlements. Here's how to do it right.
by
Refugees at a temporary camp for refugees and migrants next to the Moria camp on the island of Lesbos, Greece, February 6, 2020 [REUTERS/Elias Marcou]
Refugees at a temporary camp for refugees and migrants next to the Moria camp on the island of Lesbos, Greece, February 6, 2020 [REUTERS/Elias Marcou]
Watching inhumanity unfold at refugee camps such as Moria on the Greek island of Lesvos, it is hard not to ask why the situation has become so dire for people fleeing war and desperate lives, and for the countries receiving and hosting them. 
The war in Syria has been going on since 2011; how can it be possible that what should be the most simple of tasks still has not been achieved - the provision of decent services and protection for human beings regardless of who they are or where they have come from.
Mostly, this is a logistical and organisational task which can be achieved with the right professional and financial resources; neither of which should be an issue for a continent like Europe.
As time goes on, the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Syria and other war-torn areas of the world is getting worse for refugees from those places. As has been happening on Lesvos, we see images daily of burning refugee centres, desperate people being beaten with sticks and tear-gassed, and angry protesters fearful of more immigration.
It all seems so far removed from the European ideal of open and free societies; a Europe which seemed to be the incubator and catalyst for a modern interconnected and sustainable humanity; a Europe we hoped would finally overcome its dark history of colonialism, imperialism and fascism. 
From a humanitarian and professional perspective, you would expect the sort of mess unfolding on Lesvos to happen at the beginning of a crisis such as the war in Syria, not years into a known situation. And it is happening right on the richest continent on this globe.
This is the shameful result of there being no vision or leadership when it comes to managing the refugee crisis; of politicians having succumbed to the most primitive narrative and adopting panicky, short-sighted policies. 
Closing borders with repressive measuresdeporting young refugees and migrants even when they have learned the language and are working or are in the middle of apprenticeships are actions used to score political points with voters by ambitious populist European politicians and leaders in Austria, Poland, Bulgaria, Italy or the centrist parties moving to the right in Scandinavia or Greece. 
Their hard line attracts votes from people who feel insecure and have not been shown the benefits of implementing modern migration and integration measures. 
Affordable housing or small business support and saving schemes which made Europe so successful in its reconstruction following WWII have been abandoned and neglected throughout Europe.
Europe's visionless response to the refugee crisis has created the chaos necessary for right-wing nationalism to thrive. Recent newspaper headlines, such as "Illegal immigrants flood in!" and "Migrants rob young Britons of jobs" seen in the UK in 2019, have fuelled this sort of sentiment. 

There is a solution

Given the right tools - a team, a sufficient budget, three months to set up proper camps and six to implement the first phase of getting them up and running - and the immediate crisis in Greece and, by default, the European crisis would be over if only it was managed correctly.
Done properly, we could avoid the images of human suffering and abuse, stories of suicidal children, women being abused, human traffickers and mafia thriving.
The conditions on the Greek islands, the reforms introduced by the Greek government resulting in a block on asylum claims - a violation of international law - and the reduction of social support even to recognised refugees will open the doors further to human trafficking and exploitation. 
I saw it all when I was manager of the Zaatari refugee camp on the Jordanian-Syrian border in 2013 and 2014. During the initial restrictions strictly limiting the freedom of movement of refugees in the 100,000-person camp, prostitution, smuggling and child abuse were prolific. We were aware that Syrian mafia and business networks linked to the armed opposition were making millions every month. We did not have the resources or intelligence available to do much about it.
This is still going on. Gangs and people smugglers are preying on the desperation and vulnerability of people trying to get to Greece. Recruitment into brothels, sweatshops and farms in Europe is thriving because desperate refugees feel they have no choice. 
Documents are forged by international gangs, and children, in particular, have been disappearing without a trace - tens of thousands over the past five years, according to Europol and other child protection agencies.

Quelling our fear of immigrants

For those worried about the effect of refugees coming into their countries, properly managed refugee settlements would also stem any uncontrolled rush of refugees towards northern Europe. Responsible management of sustainable camps developing into settlements could fix all that. 
There would be immediate protection and asylum procedures for people in the most dire need and support for victims of violence as well as trauma treatment.
There would be a due process to help people return to their countries in dignity with the right support or be linked to opportunities elsewhere in the world.
This has been done before and can be done again. But Europe must be willing to invest properly in hosting larger numbers of refugees and desperate migrants.
To do this, camps will need to be transformed into sustainable settlements and cities which can accommodate hundreds of thousands of people. That is what communities have managed throughout history when towns and settlements have emerged as the result of arrivals of refugees pushed out by invaders. Many of our cities have grown that way.
Temporary holdings, storage and transit, and emergency camps with tents or portacabins and only communal washing and cooking facilities are not the answer. Those are for dealing with an immediate crisis; here, we face an continuing situation. 
My time at Zaatari made this clear to me. The camp residents became angry; they looted, rioted and rebelled against the aid agencies and authorities there for as long as there was no vision or understanding about the space and services they really needed.
Communal toilets and kitchens would be dismantled and used as materials to build individual homes. In Zaatari, once the communal facilities had been dismantled and turned into 14,000 private toilets and kitchens in homes modelled and decorated to the taste of the residents, there was peace in the camp.
All the residents of the camp really wanted was to be recognised as individuals with dignity and identity.
Therefore we partnered with private-sector and government city planning experts from the City of Amsterdam to review and adjust the way camps were being designed and built. 
As a result, Zaatari has become peaceful. It hosts a plethora of innovative projects fostering education, technology, arts and entrepreneurship. The refugee camp has become a settlement and an incubator for change.
Europe must be prepared to do exactly what we have been expecting Kenya, Jordan or Ethiopia to do for decades on our behalf. Host, assist and, if needs be, absorb and integrate refugees and migrants into existing communities.
At this stage in Europe, it may be more acceptable for the sake of political peace to begin with establishing new larger settlements, also in Europe, from which integration, return and resettlement can be coordinated and within which humans can develop and grow strength rather than just being stashed away out of sight. 
That would involve moving away from a straightforward integration of large numbers of newcomers into the social and economic fabric which has caused friction in Europe.
This is how it could be done. 
Building a basic accommodation service facility for, initially, 100,000 people on mainland Greece or in other EU countries could be done in nine weeks, including preparation.
That would mean setting up five villages for 20,000 residents each. This scheme could be expanded as required. It would need a total of approximately 2km of land per settlement, simple planning, simple infrastructure and basic services to begin with.
Land plots could be allocated allowing for houses and small businesses to be established. 
There should be access to business finance, work permissions and building permitsThe main point is to allow for some self-initiative.  
Taking a more culturally-sensitive approach would help: When it comes to shelter and space, begin to build some communities based on people's origins.
Most importantly, provide a safe space for unaccompanied children, women and others who need additional protection and support.
Introduce training so refugees can acquire new skills and invest in the future of people.
The camps designed as settlements, rather than just emergency-response sites, must become incubators for change and human development. They must allow for initiative, business development, entrepreneurship and learning. 
Deploy social caseworkers to talk, train and develop peer support - understand what the individual stories are and show people how to help each other.
This way, we can help everyone to regain their identity and dignity which many have lost on their journey.
Building resilience, strength and perspective in individuals will lead to stronger communities and constructive engagement, instead of anger, frustration and aggression building up.
Positive engagement and dialogue is the basis on which this crisis can be turned into an opportunity, not only for the people involved but also their future communities either in a new place or back home. 
The EU has invested in Turkey to support its hosting of refugees and, ultimately, so it will hold back millions of newcomers. But while we must maintain our support for Turkey and the Middle East, we should also invest in Europe. We should invest in areas which are structurally weak and depopulated by developing new population and commercial hubs.
Building new migrants inclusive settlements and cities which are designed as drivers for our economies, for innovation and growth ought to sound appealing to the people already in those areas. We do not have the workforce, the youth and energy everywhere in Europe any longer. In many areas, Europe is in decline demographically and economically.
According to Eurostat, the EU's statistics arm: "Since reaching a peak at 336.4 million in 2009, the working age population in the EU-28 has been shrinking not only as a share of the total population but also in absolute terms."
Investing in people by actively drawing on the energy of migration could pay off in a big way if we harness that energy. It will pay off for the hosts and will ultimately be the best investment into development and a more sustainable world. 
The Gulf, China and Asian city-states have shown us over the past 30 years the power and economic drive that migration and urbanisation can bring. The UAE and the Gulf thrive on the workforce of millions of migrants; China has lifted 800 million people out of poverty.

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial stance.

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