Islamic militants have withdrawn from Mogadishu, but vow to fight on
Aug 13th 2011 | NAIROBI | from the print edition
IT WAS a victory for the African Union (AU) troops. For four years they vied for control of Mogadishu, the capital, assisted by Somali soldiers allied to the weak transitional government. On August 5th they got it. Their powerful offensive threatened to encircle the positions of the Shabab militia, which is linked to al-Qaeda. In previous months it had lost much ground. Under cover of night it withdrew in lorries from wrecked seaside districts. In central Mogadishu the Bakara market is now free of the militant jihadists, and traders can breathe more easily.
Not surprisingly, the unelected but internationally recognised Somali transitional government crowed in triumph. A new age, it said, had been ushered in. The AU force, known as AMISOM, was more measured. The withdrawal marks the start of a guerrilla war, it said warily. AMISOM has 12,000 troops, nearly all from Uganda and Burundi. Its commander, Major-General Fred Mugisha, reckons troop numbers have to rise to 20,000 by September if the gains are to be kept secure.
The failure of the Shabab to launch their customary Ramadan offensive earlier this month was a belated sign of weakness. Yet the withdrawal, which frees up troops, may strengthen its hold over the countryside, currently in the grip of the worst famine in decades. No one knows the true extent of the suffering there, but new figures from the UN claim 29,000 children have already died of hunger caused by drought and mismanagement.
Many Shabab commanders believe history will judge them not by their compassion but by their ascendancy over unbelievers. Their abiding tactical advantage is their willingness to kill innocents in pursuit of that goal. Thus they will probably adopt a three-pronged strategy now: sending snipers and bombers to Mogadishu; rejecting aid; and later, as catastrophic television images leak out, allowing in aid co-ordinated by Muslim groups in return for payments.
America has discreetly bankrolled the offensive against the Shabab. An insurgency will almost certainly be met in kind by intermediaries financed by the CIA. It is keen to kill as many militant jihadists in Somalia as possible. It may have had a hand in the recent death of Shabab fighters south of Mogadishu. The militants say that France is also militarily engaged in Somalia. Perhaps so. President Nicolas Sarkozy has preferred a muscular response to Somali anarchy at sea and on land and remains irked by the kidnapping of a French secret-service agent, Denis Allex, by the Shabab in 2009.
In coming weeks much in Somalia will depend on the leadership of the president, Sharif Ahmed, and his prime minister, Abdiweli Mohamed Ali. If they can bring order to the transitional government, Mogadishu has a chance of restoration. But is there even a government? Its past performance does not bode well. Ripped apart by terrorist attacks, with paper ministries and useless parliamentarians, its abiding traits have been bickering and venality, offset by the odd spasm of courage. The “national army” includes brigands who even this week were stealing food aid. At the same time, some Shabab gunmen have peeled off into organised crime. A return to the warlordism of the past is all too likely.
If Somalia is to be spared this fate, the government will need to set up municipal services in Mogadishu and businessmen would have to change their attitude to violence. Trade, banking and telecoms magnates still refuse to speak out against the Shabab. The risk of assassination remains high, but for Somalia to make progress the spell of fear must be broken. Challenging the barbarous bits of the Shabab will take a strong stomach, as will striking deals with its moderate elements.
Not surprisingly, the unelected but internationally recognised Somali transitional government crowed in triumph. A new age, it said, had been ushered in. The AU force, known as AMISOM, was more measured. The withdrawal marks the start of a guerrilla war, it said warily. AMISOM has 12,000 troops, nearly all from Uganda and Burundi. Its commander, Major-General Fred Mugisha, reckons troop numbers have to rise to 20,000 by September if the gains are to be kept secure.
The failure of the Shabab to launch their customary Ramadan offensive earlier this month was a belated sign of weakness. Yet the withdrawal, which frees up troops, may strengthen its hold over the countryside, currently in the grip of the worst famine in decades. No one knows the true extent of the suffering there, but new figures from the UN claim 29,000 children have already died of hunger caused by drought and mismanagement.
Many Shabab commanders believe history will judge them not by their compassion but by their ascendancy over unbelievers. Their abiding tactical advantage is their willingness to kill innocents in pursuit of that goal. Thus they will probably adopt a three-pronged strategy now: sending snipers and bombers to Mogadishu; rejecting aid; and later, as catastrophic television images leak out, allowing in aid co-ordinated by Muslim groups in return for payments.
America has discreetly bankrolled the offensive against the Shabab. An insurgency will almost certainly be met in kind by intermediaries financed by the CIA. It is keen to kill as many militant jihadists in Somalia as possible. It may have had a hand in the recent death of Shabab fighters south of Mogadishu. The militants say that France is also militarily engaged in Somalia. Perhaps so. President Nicolas Sarkozy has preferred a muscular response to Somali anarchy at sea and on land and remains irked by the kidnapping of a French secret-service agent, Denis Allex, by the Shabab in 2009.
In coming weeks much in Somalia will depend on the leadership of the president, Sharif Ahmed, and his prime minister, Abdiweli Mohamed Ali. If they can bring order to the transitional government, Mogadishu has a chance of restoration. But is there even a government? Its past performance does not bode well. Ripped apart by terrorist attacks, with paper ministries and useless parliamentarians, its abiding traits have been bickering and venality, offset by the odd spasm of courage. The “national army” includes brigands who even this week were stealing food aid. At the same time, some Shabab gunmen have peeled off into organised crime. A return to the warlordism of the past is all too likely.
If Somalia is to be spared this fate, the government will need to set up municipal services in Mogadishu and businessmen would have to change their attitude to violence. Trade, banking and telecoms magnates still refuse to speak out against the Shabab. The risk of assassination remains high, but for Somalia to make progress the spell of fear must be broken. Challenging the barbarous bits of the Shabab will take a strong stomach, as will striking deals with its moderate elements.
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