General election 2017: Polls and latest odds tracker

Ashley Kirk

The Telegraph29 May 2017

UK general election polls and odds tracker

Labour continue to narrow the gap on the Conservatives with one YouGov poll putting them within five points of Theresa May's party.

The closing stages of the election have been rocked by the terror attack at Manchester Arena that killed 22 people on the evening of May 22.

Political campaigning restarted on Friday after being suspended in the wake of the attack. Prior to the attack Labour had been gaining on the Conservatives, albeit with a healthy deficit still left to overcome.

UK General Election 2017 polling

Some early polls had the Tories at almost double the vote share of the Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbyn, indicating that the most likely outcome would be a landslide victory that would increase her party’s current working majority of 17 in the House of Commons.

Theresa May's lead has dropped from 17.8 points to 10.5 since she called the election on April 18.

While the pollsters still give the Tories a clear lead, the apparent impact of early campaigning will be a concern to party headquarters, and a boost to their rivals.

Some experts had estimated that the Tories would take as many as 56 seats from Labour, leaving them with a 200-seat lead over the official opposition party, aided by Ukip's apparent collapse in popular support over recent weeks.

Conservative polling lead

A healthy Tory majority is still on the cards, but Labour now look set to win more of the vote than they did under Ed Miliband in 2015. Theresa May won't be worried yet, but alarm bells will ring if her lead continues to narrow.

Follow how the race is shaping up with The Telegraph's poll tracker, which looks at national voting intention from individual polls.

UK's current political make-up

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China's 'toilet revolution' targets dirty lavatories

AFP

29 May 2017

Authorities in China have installed or upgraded over 50,000 lavatories in a "national toilet revolution" designed to clean up filthy public restrooms

China is taking care of a pressing need: Authorities have installed or upgraded over 50,000 lavatories in a "national toilet revolution" designed to clean up filthy public restrooms.

Relief is coming soon, and by the end of the year China expects to have added or upgraded a total of 71,000 toilets, well exceeding a target initially set in 2015.

The plan to fix the country's bad reputation for grimy and smelly facilities has focused on restrooms in tourist sites.

In some places, shiny new toilets have replaced unhygienic open pits that offered little privacy.

More sanitation workers have also been hired.

The National Tourism Administration said in a report on Friday that almost 93 percent of the target has been reached.

"At tourist sites, visitors were angered by insufficient toilets, unhygienic conditions and lack of sanitation workers," state news agency Xinhua said.

Xinhua said a recent survey showed over 80 percent of tourists now find China's toilets satisfactory, compared to 70 percent in 2015.

Facilities tend to be worse in rural areas, where some "were little more than ramshackle shelters surrounded by bunches of cornstalk," Xinhua reported.

Additionally, officials are using technological savvy to crack down on toilet paper theft and put a stop to people smuggling out entire rolls in bulging bags.

Some sites, including the Temple of Heaven and Olympic Green complexes in Beijing, have introduced facial recognition technology to foil paper bandits.

Visitors must approach a machine one by one to get their faces scanned before receiving their portion of loo roll.

If caught stealing or misbehaving people could face a ban from the facilities.

For years already, urinals in China have featured signs encouraging men to stand closer and aim better, advising: "One small step forward, one giant leap for civilisation".

Man, 35, shot dead in front of son, 3, in Sainsbury's supermarket car park in Bangor

Bethany Minelle, News Reporter

Sky News29 May 2017

A 35-year-old man was shot dead while strapping his son into his car seat in a supermarket car park in Northern Ireland.

Colin Horner was hit several times outside a Sainsbury's supermarket on the outskirts of Bangor in County Down.

The Loyalist from Carrickfergus, County Antrim, had recently relocated to the area after threats to his life.

Calling the murder a "hugely barbaric act" police said it was lucky his three-year-old son, who was "immediately beside his father when he was shot dead in front of him" was not killed or seriously injured as well.

The shooting is believed to have occurred at about 3pm on Sunday in the packed car park, just off the Balloo Link road.

Detectives said Mr Horner was strapping his son into the back seat of his black Nissan Pulsar when he was confronted by a lone attacker who fired at least three shots from a handgun.

The gunman, who had his face covered and was wearing a dark hoody, escaped in a red Ford Mondeo driven by an accomplice.

The vehicle was later found burned out about 10 miles away in the Kerrs Road area.

Investigators said there may have been more than 100 people who witnessed the shooting, including children who were in the car park at the time.

Calling the incident "a completely reckless act" police revealed one stray bullet struck another shopper's car during the attack.

Mr Horner was an associate of fellow Carrickfergus loyalist George 'Geordie' Gilmore, who was shot dead in the town in March.

Mr Gilmore, 44. was killed as part of a long-running feud among rival loyalists in Carrickfergus, and police have confirmed this ongoing conflict will be one of the lines of inquiry into this shooting.

Superintendent Brian Kee, district commander for Ards and North Down District, condemned what he called a "brutal, senseless and horrendous killing" and warned of the psychological trauma the man's son has suffered.

"This cold-blooded murder was carried out in broad daylight in front of families who were out enjoying this Bank Holiday weekend," he said.

"The recklessness of this murder is all too evident. It is beyond belief that the gunman shot the victim when he was out with his son.

"This young boy witnessed everything and he will undoubtedly carry that memory for the rest of his life. We are very lucky that we are not also dealing with the death of this child today."

Alan Chambers, Ulster Unionist MLA in Stormont, who was on the scene 10 minutes after the attack, said: "It was clear to me that we could easily have been dealing with a lot more casualties due to the nature of the attack, in which the victim was hit a number of times."

Northern Ireland secretary of state James Brokenshire condemned the shooting, posting on Twitter: "Deeply disturbed by news of the shooting in the Sainsbury's car park in Bangor. Brutal act of violence that has no place in Northern Ireland."

Police are currently trawling through CCTV footage taken in the car park, and are appealing for any witnesses to contact them, or alternatively to speak to Crimestoppers anonymously on 0800 555 111.

Musharax Doorashada dalka Kenya oo loo haysto dambi ah inuu doonayay inuu isdilo

May 29 (Jowhar)—Mid kamid ah Musharaxiinta doonaysay inay ka qeybgasho doorashada Madaxweyne ee dalka Kenya ayaa la soo taagay maanta maxkamad iyadoo lagu soo eedeeyay inuu doonayay inuu isdilo kadib markii uu ku guuldareystey inuu soo buuxiyo shuruudaha uu ugaga mid noqon lahaa musharaxiinta sida rasmiga ah ugu tartamaysa doorashada Madaxweynaha dalka Kenya.

Peter Gichira ayaa beeniyay eedeymaha loo soo jeediyay ee ahaa inuu isku dayay inuu iska soo tuuro dabaqa lixdaad ee dhismaha guddiga doorashada dalka Kenya,waxana lagu soo daayay damiin.

Booliska dalka Kenya ayaa soo qabtay Peter Sabtidii aynu ka soo gudubnay isagoo doonayay inuu iska soo tuuro dabaq dheer kadib markii uu kamid noqday siddeed musharax oo ku guuldareystey inay soo buuxiyaan shuruudaha tartanka doorashada Madaxweyne ee 8 August 2017 ka dhacaysa dalka Kenya.

Mr Gichira oo ah siyaasi aan waxbadan laga aqoon ayaa soo buuxin waayay mid ka mid ah shuruudaha laga doonayay inuu soo buuxiyo musharaxa Madaxweynaha oo ah inuu keeno saxiixyada 2,000 oo ruux kuwaasoo aan xisbina ka tirsanayn 24 kamid ah 47da gobol ee dalka Kenya.

Doorashada Madaxweynaha dalka Kenya ayaa la filayaa in ay si weyn ugu tartamaan Madaxweynaha haatan talada haya Uhuru Kenyatta kaasoo markii labaad raadinaya in la doorto iyo hogaamiyaha Mucaaradka Raila Odinga oo markiisii afaraad u tartamaya madaxtinimada dalka Kenya.

Caqabado soo wajahay howlgalo hub ka dhigis ah oo maalmahan ka socday Muqdisho

Iyadoo maalmahan qeybo ka mid ah magaalada Muqdisho ay ciidamada amaanku ka wadeen howgalo hub ka dhigis ah ayaa waxaa howlgalkaas soo wajahay caqabado kala duwan.

Howlgalkan ayaa ujeedadisu aheyd in qoryaha laga dhigo maleeshiyooyinka hubeysan ee lagu arko wadooyinka iyo kooxaha isbaarada iyo dhaca ku haya shacabka.

Balse howlgalkan ayaa yeeshay waji kale ka dib markii ciidamadii amaanka ee ka qeyb qaadanayey ay beegsadeen hub ka dhigisna ku sameeyeen ciidamo kale oo isla dowlada ka tirsan.

Sidoo kale ciidamadii la qabqabtay iyo qoryihii laga qaaday tiradooda ayaa kala batay markii la geeyey saldhigyada ciidanka amaanka taasoo keentay in la waayo qaar ka mid ah hubkii ay wateen ciidamadii la soo qabtay.

Arintan ayaa waxay dhalisay muran iyo shaki badan oo laga qaaday ciidamadii howgalada fulinayey oo qaarkood lagu tuhmay iney qarsadeen qaar ka mid ah hubkii ay ka aruuriyeen ciidamada kale ee dowlada, caro badan ayaana ka dhalatay arintaas.

Guddiga amniga Qaranka oo arrintan lagu wargeliyey ayaa la filayaa iney saacadaha soo socda kulan deg deg ah ka yeeshaan caqabadaha soo kordhay iyo sidii xal looga gaari lahaa, go’aamo ayaana la filayaa iney arimahan ka soo saaraan iyadoo howlgalki socdayna la hakiyey. 


Xafiiska Shabakada Allbanaadir.com
Muqdisho Somalia
Allbanaadir@live.com

Ciidanka Kenya oo xasuuqay Geel boqol Neef ka badan & xildhibaan si kulul uga hadlay (Daawo Sawirro)

In ka badan boqol neef oo geel ah oo la sheegay inay lahayeen xoolo dhaqato Soomaali ah ayaa lagu laayey tuulada Booko oo ku taalla degaanka Tana River ee dalka Kenya. 

Neefafkan geela ayaa waxaa la sheegayaa inay dileen ciidamo katirsan Booliska dalka Kenya Mas'uuliyiita laamaha ammaanka waxay sheegeen inay baarayaan falkan.

Cali Waariyow oo ah Xildhibaan ka tirsan baarlamanka Kenya oo laga soo doorto degaanka Tana River ee Geella lagu laayey waxa uu xusay inuu indhihiisa ku soo arkay geella la laayey.

“Waa arrin laga xumaado in geel ka badan 105 neef xabad lala dhaco weliba si bareer ah, wax la qaadan karo oo caqliga geli kara maaha dowladana waa iney jawaab ka bixisaa” ayuu yiri xildhibaanka.

Waxa uu sheegay inuu la kulmay saraaakisha laamaha amaanka Kenya ayna u sheegeen iney baaritaan wadaan dibna ka soo sheegi doonaan sida ay wax u dhaceen.

Ciidamada Kenya ayaa howlgalo kala duwan ka wadaan qeybo kamid ah Gobolka Waqooyi Bari halkaasoo dhowr mar ay weeraro ka geysteen dagaalyahano ka tirsan Al-Shabaab oo ka gudbay xadka Somalia. 





Xafiiska Shabakada Allbanaadir.com
Muqdisho Somalia
Allbanaadir@live.com

Akhriso Magacada iyo Qabiilada Gudoomiyaasha Cusub ee Degmooyinka G/Banaadir (Majeerteen ayaa kamid ah)

Gudoomiyaha Gobolka Banaadir Ahna Duqa Muqdidsho Taabit Cabdi Maxamed ayaa caawa shaaciyay in uu xilkii ka qaaday 15-kamid ah Gudoomiyaashii Degmooyinka gobolka Banaadir, waxa uuna magacaabay Gudoomiyaal cusub oo bedelaya kuwii hore. Gudoomiyaaasha loo magacaabay Degmooyinka gobolka Banaadir ayaa u badan kuwa saaxiib dhaw la ah Duqa Muqdisho oo ka yimid Qurbaha sida dalka Ingiriiska iyo Xubno kaalin weyn ka qaatay ololihii doorashada Madaxweyne Farmaajo. Waxaa xusid mudan in Gudoomiyaasha Degmooyinka gobolka Banaadir qaarkood la siiyay beelo aan horey Gudoomiye degmo uga noqon Gobolka Banaadir 26-kii sano ee lasoo dhaafay, waxaana beelahaasi yihiin Daarood gaar ahaan Majeerteen iyo Dir. Gudoomiyaasha cusub ee Degmooyinka gobolka Banaadir waxaa sidoo kale kamid noqday gabdhihii ugu badnaa ee Noqda Gudoomiye degmo, waxa ayna heleen haweenka in ay Gudoomiye ka noqdaan 5-kamid ah Degmooyinka gobolka Banaadir. Halkan ka Akhriso Magacyada iyo Qabiilada Gudoomiyaasha Cusub ee Degmooyinka gobolka Banaadir 1- C/fataax Nuur Cali (Yaanyo) Degmada Kaaraan: Abgaal Reer Mataan 2-Axmed Xasan Maxamuud Degmada Yaaqshiid : Abgaal Cabdalla Caroone 3- Cumar C/llaahi xassan Degmada Wadajir : Abgaal Daa'uud 4-C/wali C/llaahi Maxamed :Degmada Xamar Jajab : Abgaal Warsangali 5- Zainab Yuusuf Wehliye : Degmada Boondheere :Abgaal Waceysle 6-Maxamed Axmed Cantoobo :Degmada Hodan : Habar Gidir Ceyr 7- Rowdo C/llaahi : Degmada Waabari : Habar Gidir Salemaan 8- Zainab Maxamuud Warsame: Degmada Wardhiigley : Habar Gidir Sacad 9-Cabdikariin Cali Kaar :Howl-Wadaag -Murusade -Foor Culus-Habar Maxamed- Hilibi 10- C/wali Nuur faarax Fagalax -Dayniile -Murusade -Foor culus Habar Ceno -Reer Ugaas 11- Basmo Cumar Axmed -Degmada Shangaani -Reer Xamar- Camuudi 12-Cumar Shariif Maye Degmada Xamer-weyne - Reer Xamar Bandhaboow 13- Caafiyo Sheekh Cali Jimcaale :Degmada Shibis- Xawaadle 14-Sharmaarke Maxamed Ladane- Degmada C/casiis- Daaroos Majeereen 15- C/raxmaan Siid Cali -Degmada Dharkeynley -Dir Xafiiska Shabakada Allbanaadir.com Muqdisho Somalia Allbanaadir@live.com

The aristocrat of totalitarianism-Could Ethiopia survive the Jasmine Revolution ?

The Indian Noble-Prize winning economist, Amartya Sen, postulates:
“Shortfalls in food supply do not cause widespread deaths in a democracy because vote-seeking politicians will undertake relief efforts; but even modest food shortfalls can create deadly famines in authoritarian societies.”

Ethiopia is the only country in Africa, or I may say, in the world that needs pre-emptive foreign intervention to save it from total destruction as Meles Zenawi’s regime sits on a thin ice that needs a flicker of fire to pull down his domino house of power. The ongoing winds of change that engulfed the countries to the north of Ethiopia (Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Yemen, Sudan and etc) which are relatively much better, in terms of civil liberty and economic life, are bound to sweep through Ethiopia with vengeance in the very near future.

   

Ethiopia under the current dictatorial regime has all the ingredients that cause to trigger uncontainable mass uprising that has the potential to melt down Mele Zenawi’s regime.  The forth coming uprising, unlike Egypt or Tunisia, will result rivers of blood on the streets of Addis followed by ethnic cleansing of the Tigrean people because the regime and the army that committed untold human rights violations are entirely   based on one ethnic (Tigrean) group. Besides the economic and political sectors which are colonised by ethnic Tigreans, the security sector and the Army for the first time in the history of Ethiopia became the monopoly of one ethnic group -Who is who of Ethiopia’s Top Army Brass.

(also here >> about Megistu Haile Mariam)

http://garizo.blogspot.com/2011/02/mengistu-haile-mariam.html

Egypt and Tunisia have a national army that can save the state but unfortunately there are no such safeguards in Ethiopia because the regime and the army are one and the same.  The masses deem the Tigrean people to have colluded with the regime in its suppression of other Ethiopian nationalities. The regime kills and maims people in the name of the Tigrean people.  The uprising in the pipeline won’t be limited to regime change but might go further to address the century old colonial question once and for all – the split of Ethiopia into six or seven ethnic based independent states.

Ethiopia has a grim reading in all indicators of good governance

Tunisia and Egypt were both flashing consistent GDP growth as Zenawi does at the end of every year but all indicators show that the wealth didn’t trickle down to the common man – even the Dergi regime registered their highest, 13.9%, in 1987 just after the famine and at the height of the internal wars.  Despite the overall economic growth, obviously none people centred, in the country, Ethiopia still has one of the lowest GDP per capita in the world and also a quarter of its people are food aid dependent.

Premier Zenawi is so fraudulent that in reaction to IMF and World Bank recommendations to privatise public owned assets; he instead legalised the theft of the whole lot in a way even the blind can see. The Ethiopian Privatization Agency (EPA) was established as an autonomous agency in February 1994 to oversee the privatisation of the state owned enterprises. In place of “hands off” free market approach, the Orwellian regime transferred the ownership of state assets to TPLF and thus transformed the state assets in to parastatals run by exclusive Tigrean people who are affiliated with party. This stifled competition and created an economy based on state sector and phony conglomerates, parastatals, whose income goes to private pockets. See the extent of corruption  List of TPLF owned business

In response to his irresponsible fiscal policy that resulted Ethiopia’s inflation to jump from 10.2 to 14.5 percent last month after a steep rise in food and non – food prices caused in part by two successive currency devaluation in less than 12 months – Premier Zenawi resorted to putting price caps on many commodities. The business community withdraw their stocks from the shelves because the market is governed by demand and supply not by circulars from the Premiers’ office.

At the time of this writing, Thursday 03rd Feb, the Premier ruled out the possibility of another major devaluation of the Birr in the coming five years. The premier told his so called legislators, in question and answers suggestion, that the inflation is caused by the traders whom he accused are artificially inflating food prices on the back of global price increases and a September devaluation of the birr.

The premier seems to have taken leave out of sanity because there is no expert in this world who can say there will be no inflation that can warrant to depreciating the birr for the coming five years especially when it was a general knowledge that another devaluation was to come in the following two months – this is a panic reaction induced by the Jasmine revolution.

Ethiopia can support the food needs of its people if the government is wise enough to invest in to viable agricultural projects instead of selling the best land to flower growing companies at nominal fee of £10 a hector for hundred years lease. This sort of land confiscation policy created a multitude of landless peasants who either coerced to join the internally displaced people or toil their own land for the new foreign landlords for a very low wage.   Projects of this nature are preferred by   Meles regime because they pop up the GDP figures which he enjoys to brandish at all times.

Well preserved forests that covers over three thousand hectares went under the hammer and is to be given to Verdanata Harvests PLC, an Indian company, against the wishes of the locals. The forest is to make way for tea plantations that would affect the ecological system of the area. Despite public outcry and Ethiopia president’s, Girma Wolde-Girogis, expressed   concerns over land grabbing in the Gambella Regional State (Southwest Ethiopia), Mezghnger Zone, Guderre Woreda ;  Premier Zenawi wants the project, without further consultation,  to start on time because it is good for the GDP – people don’t eat distorted GDP figures.

The annual Freedom House’s report ranks countries in the world as Free, Partly Free and Not Free based on their respect for political rights and civil liberties. The latest report notes that Ethiopia’s ranking has dropped from ‘Partly Free’ in 2009 to ‘NOT FREE’ in 2010 due to the heightened political repression, and the clampdown on independent media and nongovernmental organizations. Freedom House also notes that Ethiopia’s decline is the most significant drop in the ranking in the sub-Saharan Africa as well as the world in 2010.

A recent ranking http://www.prosperity.com/rankings.aspx put Ethiopia near the bottom of the world  prosperity index (107th out of 110 countries in the world) and also  UNDP’s index ranked it at the bottom in  UNDP Human Development Indicator   (157 out of 169 countries).  A statistics by Socialbakers.com shows (202nd out of 213) that Face book penetration in Ethiopia is only 0.28 percent, which is one of the lowest in Africa. Ethiopian and other independent websites are blocked and radios including VOA are jammed. The internet speed of Ethiopia is the slowest in Africa and yet has the highest censorship regime in place – now word like Egypt, Tunisia are put in the bad books of  the censorship board.

 Ethiopia’s successive dictatorial regimes were traditionally legitimised and always rewarded for their unparalleled human rights violations by the international community and Zenaw’s regime is treading the ancient road in this new global village. See the latest human rights report of Ethiopia  Human Rights Watch (full Report)

Background to Ethiopia’s Tigrean Regime

Primier Minister Mele Zenawi came to power on the back of highly disciplined communist secessionist guerrilla force, Tigrean Peoples Liberation Front, that fortune handed the crown of Ethiopia in 1991. Initially the executive committee were divided as to how to handle the new unprepared for challenge - they never thought about governing Ethiopia - of running Ethiopia as opposed to their original secessionist goal. TPLF’s secret consensus at the time was to build and develop their barren region from the treasury of Ethiopia and to superimpose their guerrilla forces and their other cadres on the institutions that held Ethiopia together. This paradigm was adopted to appease the diehard secessionist members because it provides a strong safety valve – it is simply win- win situation in the eyes of the intransigent secessionists. Zenawi was quoted to have said “if the going gets tough then we have our developed region to fall back with the added benefit that Ethiopia will never haunt us as it will cease to exist after our departure”.
 All the nationality based armed fronts in Ethiopia, EPLF, ONLF, OLF and etc stood in solidarity with the TPLF on the understanding that they could jointly thrust the multi ethnic backward Ethiopia, to the 21st century political life but to their dismay found out that the TPLF is still committed to their secessionist agenda. Within months of coming to power the TPLF implemented their hidden agenda   by disarming most of nationality based armed fronts with exception of EPLF (Eritrean People’s Liberation Front) and ONLF (Ogaden National Liberation Front), the later seeking to liberate the Somali inhabited regions of Eastern Ethiopia and the former were their mentors which they can’t afford to touch.

Premier Zenawi and his comrades, the executive committee of the TPLF, lost no time in replaying the scenarios in George Orwell’s classic novel “animal farm” an allegory of early history of the Soviet Union. The TPLF’s secessionist guerrilla fighters who were indoctrinated to defend the interest of their region on the expense of Ethiopia were renamed as the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF). Federal Army’s rank and file is all inclusive and populated by members that hail from the nationalities of the federal states and are educated to be the guarantor of the constitution and to remain none- partisan in the local and national politics while the ethnic guerrilla forces have allegiances only to their superiors and to their region and thus see other nationalities as their subservient – bounty of war. Ethiopia has no federal Army because the country’s ambition to become federal was by design aborted by the TPLF.

The Premier and his men also renamed the TPLF as EPRDF (Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front) to mislead the international community in to believing that the regime is broad based one. EPRDF is a Trojan horse invented by TPLF to hold on to power by false pretence. The parties that are claimed by the TPLF government to share the umbrella of EPRDF with them are but only figments in their imaginations. With the exception of TPLF none of the other parties from the EPRDF are real and legitimate representatives of their constituents. The OPDO(Oromo People’s Democratic Organisation), in the new speak, is the new name for the outlawed OLF(Oromo Liberation Front), the SEPDF is a new name that came out of the blue and the ANDM(Ahmara National Democratic Movement) is the new name of  EPDM(Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement). The ONLF (Ogaden Liberation Front), OLF and ALF Afar Liberation front and others are active and engage the TPLF’s army in the country side all year round.

Conclusion: United States should initiate a quick regime change  
United States and its western allies keep this repressive regime in power by pumping three billion dollars a year (military and non-military aid) without demanding good governance in exchange. The same money is used by the Tigrean forces to subdue the other Ethiopian nationalities – America knowingly instigates, finances and lends diplomatic support to the genocidal regime of Meles Zenawi.

Like the dictators (Mubarik, Sainal Abdin, Melez and etc) the US government supports, America, usually wakes up when things fall apart or at the 11th hour. In the case of Egypt, the soon to come democratic government, irrespective if Islamist Brotherhood takes over or not, will be accountable to their voters who are resentful the subservient status their country is relegated to. Egypt which is strategically located at the Zeus canal where quarter of world trade goes through and which is also the centre of the Muslim and Arab world will never be the same rubber stamp but will occupy its lofty position.

Taking in to account the dire economic, social and political situation of Ethiopia; chances of  Meles regime surviving the people’s revolution is next to nil, so for the US to start regime change in Ethiopia, as soon as possible, is the only  practical option that can save the second most populace country in Africa.

The current relocation of US embassy to a safer part of Addis, at a time the country is at the brink of total disaster, is a misplaced priority. Whenever a US embassy is relocated to where they see as a safer compound, surprisingly the host government falls into black hole. The Experience of US embassy’s relocation to KM7, Afgoi road, compound just before a year Somalia imploded was a bad investment which is locally known as the mad house.-the compound was turned in to UNISOM army barrack and later in to IDP camp and I am afraid the new embassy in Addis will most probably become a future IDP camp.

Abdiakrim H. Abdi Buh
Email:abdikarimbuh@yahoo.com
Political analyst and WardheerNews contributor

The aristocrat of totalitarianism-Could Ethiopia survive the Jasmine Revolution ?

The Indian Noble-Prize winning economist, Amartya Sen, postulates:
“Shortfalls in food supply do not cause widespread deaths in a democracy because vote-seeking politicians will undertake relief efforts; but even modest food shortfalls can create deadly famines in authoritarian societies.”

Ethiopia is the only country in Africa, or I may say, in the world that needs pre-emptive foreign intervention to save it from total destruction as Meles Zenawi’s regime sits on a thin ice that needs a flicker of fire to pull down his domino house of power. The ongoing winds of change that engulfed the countries to the north of Ethiopia (Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Yemen, Sudan and etc) which are relatively much better, in terms of civil liberty and economic life, are bound to sweep through Ethiopia with vengeance in the very near future.

   

Ethiopia under the current dictatorial regime has all the ingredients that cause to trigger uncontainable mass uprising that has the potential to melt down Mele Zenawi’s regime.  The forth coming uprising, unlike Egypt or Tunisia, will result rivers of blood on the streets of Addis followed by ethnic cleansing of the Tigrean people because the regime and the army that committed untold human rights violations are entirely   based on one ethnic (Tigrean) group. Besides the economic and political sectors which are colonised by ethnic Tigreans, the security sector and the Army for the first time in the history of Ethiopia became the monopoly of one ethnic group -Who is who of Ethiopia’s Top Army Brass.

(also here >> about Megistu Haile Mariam)

http://garizo.blogspot.com/2011/02/mengistu-haile-mariam.html

Egypt and Tunisia have a national army that can save the state but unfortunately there are no such safeguards in Ethiopia because the regime and the army are one and the same.  The masses deem the Tigrean people to have colluded with the regime in its suppression of other Ethiopian nationalities. The regime kills and maims people in the name of the Tigrean people.  The uprising in the pipeline won’t be limited to regime change but might go further to address the century old colonial question once and for all – the split of Ethiopia into six or seven ethnic based independent states.

Ethiopia has a grim reading in all indicators of good governance

Tunisia and Egypt were both flashing consistent GDP growth as Zenawi does at the end of every year but all indicators show that the wealth didn’t trickle down to the common man – even the Dergi regime registered their highest, 13.9%, in 1987 just after the famine and at the height of the internal wars.  Despite the overall economic growth, obviously none people centred, in the country, Ethiopia still has one of the lowest GDP per capita in the world and also a quarter of its people are food aid dependent.

Premier Zenawi is so fraudulent that in reaction to IMF and World Bank recommendations to privatise public owned assets; he instead legalised the theft of the whole lot in a way even the blind can see. The Ethiopian Privatization Agency (EPA) was established as an autonomous agency in February 1994 to oversee the privatisation of the state owned enterprises. In place of “hands off” free market approach, the Orwellian regime transferred the ownership of state assets to TPLF and thus transformed the state assets in to parastatals run by exclusive Tigrean people who are affiliated with party. This stifled competition and created an economy based on state sector and phony conglomerates, parastatals, whose income goes to private pockets. See the extent of corruption  List of TPLF owned business

In response to his irresponsible fiscal policy that resulted Ethiopia’s inflation to jump from 10.2 to 14.5 percent last month after a steep rise in food and non – food prices caused in part by two successive currency devaluation in less than 12 months – Premier Zenawi resorted to putting price caps on many commodities. The business community withdraw their stocks from the shelves because the market is governed by demand and supply not by circulars from the Premiers’ office.

At the time of this writing, Thursday 03rd Feb, the Premier ruled out the possibility of another major devaluation of the Birr in the coming five years. The premier told his so called legislators, in question and answers suggestion, that the inflation is caused by the traders whom he accused are artificially inflating food prices on the back of global price increases and a September devaluation of the birr.

The premier seems to have taken leave out of sanity because there is no expert in this world who can say there will be no inflation that can warrant to depreciating the birr for the coming five years especially when it was a general knowledge that another devaluation was to come in the following two months – this is a panic reaction induced by the Jasmine revolution.

Ethiopia can support the food needs of its people if the government is wise enough to invest in to viable agricultural projects instead of selling the best land to flower growing companies at nominal fee of £10 a hector for hundred years lease. This sort of land confiscation policy created a multitude of landless peasants who either coerced to join the internally displaced people or toil their own land for the new foreign landlords for a very low wage.   Projects of this nature are preferred by   Meles regime because they pop up the GDP figures which he enjoys to brandish at all times.

Well preserved forests that covers over three thousand hectares went under the hammer and is to be given to Verdanata Harvests PLC, an Indian company, against the wishes of the locals. The forest is to make way for tea plantations that would affect the ecological system of the area. Despite public outcry and Ethiopia president’s, Girma Wolde-Girogis, expressed   concerns over land grabbing in the Gambella Regional State (Southwest Ethiopia), Mezghnger Zone, Guderre Woreda ;  Premier Zenawi wants the project, without further consultation,  to start on time because it is good for the GDP – people don’t eat distorted GDP figures.

The annual Freedom House’s report ranks countries in the world as Free, Partly Free and Not Free based on their respect for political rights and civil liberties. The latest report notes that Ethiopia’s ranking has dropped from ‘Partly Free’ in 2009 to ‘NOT FREE’ in 2010 due to the heightened political repression, and the clampdown on independent media and nongovernmental organizations. Freedom House also notes that Ethiopia’s decline is the most significant drop in the ranking in the sub-Saharan Africa as well as the world in 2010.

A recent ranking http://www.prosperity.com/rankings.aspx put Ethiopia near the bottom of the world  prosperity index (107th out of 110 countries in the world) and also  UNDP’s index ranked it at the bottom in  UNDP Human Development Indicator   (157 out of 169 countries).  A statistics by Socialbakers.com shows (202nd out of 213) that Face book penetration in Ethiopia is only 0.28 percent, which is one of the lowest in Africa. Ethiopian and other independent websites are blocked and radios including VOA are jammed. The internet speed of Ethiopia is the slowest in Africa and yet has the highest censorship regime in place – now word like Egypt, Tunisia are put in the bad books of  the censorship board.

 Ethiopia’s successive dictatorial regimes were traditionally legitimised and always rewarded for their unparalleled human rights violations by the international community and Zenaw’s regime is treading the ancient road in this new global village. See the latest human rights report of Ethiopia  Human Rights Watch (full Report)

Background to Ethiopia’s Tigrean Regime

Primier Minister Mele Zenawi came to power on the back of highly disciplined communist secessionist guerrilla force, Tigrean Peoples Liberation Front, that fortune handed the crown of Ethiopia in 1991. Initially the executive committee were divided as to how to handle the new unprepared for challenge - they never thought about governing Ethiopia - of running Ethiopia as opposed to their original secessionist goal. TPLF’s secret consensus at the time was to build and develop their barren region from the treasury of Ethiopia and to superimpose their guerrilla forces and their other cadres on the institutions that held Ethiopia together. This paradigm was adopted to appease the diehard secessionist members because it provides a strong safety valve – it is simply win- win situation in the eyes of the intransigent secessionists. Zenawi was quoted to have said “if the going gets tough then we have our developed region to fall back with the added benefit that Ethiopia will never haunt us as it will cease to exist after our departure”.
 All the nationality based armed fronts in Ethiopia, EPLF, ONLF, OLF and etc stood in solidarity with the TPLF on the understanding that they could jointly thrust the multi ethnic backward Ethiopia, to the 21st century political life but to their dismay found out that the TPLF is still committed to their secessionist agenda. Within months of coming to power the TPLF implemented their hidden agenda   by disarming most of nationality based armed fronts with exception of EPLF (Eritrean People’s Liberation Front) and ONLF (Ogaden National Liberation Front), the later seeking to liberate the Somali inhabited regions of Eastern Ethiopia and the former were their mentors which they can’t afford to touch.

Premier Zenawi and his comrades, the executive committee of the TPLF, lost no time in replaying the scenarios in George Orwell’s classic novel “animal farm” an allegory of early history of the Soviet Union. The TPLF’s secessionist guerrilla fighters who were indoctrinated to defend the interest of their region on the expense of Ethiopia were renamed as the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF). Federal Army’s rank and file is all inclusive and populated by members that hail from the nationalities of the federal states and are educated to be the guarantor of the constitution and to remain none- partisan in the local and national politics while the ethnic guerrilla forces have allegiances only to their superiors and to their region and thus see other nationalities as their subservient – bounty of war. Ethiopia has no federal Army because the country’s ambition to become federal was by design aborted by the TPLF.

The Premier and his men also renamed the TPLF as EPRDF (Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front) to mislead the international community in to believing that the regime is broad based one. EPRDF is a Trojan horse invented by TPLF to hold on to power by false pretence. The parties that are claimed by the TPLF government to share the umbrella of EPRDF with them are but only figments in their imaginations. With the exception of TPLF none of the other parties from the EPRDF are real and legitimate representatives of their constituents. The OPDO(Oromo People’s Democratic Organisation), in the new speak, is the new name for the outlawed OLF(Oromo Liberation Front), the SEPDF is a new name that came out of the blue and the ANDM(Ahmara National Democratic Movement) is the new name of  EPDM(Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement). The ONLF (Ogaden Liberation Front), OLF and ALF Afar Liberation front and others are active and engage the TPLF’s army in the country side all year round.

Conclusion: United States should initiate a quick regime change  
United States and its western allies keep this repressive regime in power by pumping three billion dollars a year (military and non-military aid) without demanding good governance in exchange. The same money is used by the Tigrean forces to subdue the other Ethiopian nationalities – America knowingly instigates, finances and lends diplomatic support to the genocidal regime of Meles Zenawi.

Like the dictators (Mubarik, Sainal Abdin, Melez and etc) the US government supports, America, usually wakes up when things fall apart or at the 11th hour. In the case of Egypt, the soon to come democratic government, irrespective if Islamist Brotherhood takes over or not, will be accountable to their voters who are resentful the subservient status their country is relegated to. Egypt which is strategically located at the Zeus canal where quarter of world trade goes through and which is also the centre of the Muslim and Arab world will never be the same rubber stamp but will occupy its lofty position.

Taking in to account the dire economic, social and political situation of Ethiopia; chances of  Meles regime surviving the people’s revolution is next to nil, so for the US to start regime change in Ethiopia, as soon as possible, is the only  practical option that can save the second most populace country in Africa.

The current relocation of US embassy to a safer part of Addis, at a time the country is at the brink of total disaster, is a misplaced priority. Whenever a US embassy is relocated to where they see as a safer compound, surprisingly the host government falls into black hole. The Experience of US embassy’s relocation to KM7, Afgoi road, compound just before a year Somalia imploded was a bad investment which is locally known as the mad house.-the compound was turned in to UNISOM army barrack and later in to IDP camp and I am afraid the new embassy in Addis will most probably become a future IDP camp.

Abdiakrim H. Abdi Buh
Email:abdikarimbuh@yahoo.com
Political analyst and WardheerNews contributor