Monday 24 August 2020

How Somalia Was Made ‘Great Again’

AFRICA

How Somalia Was Made ‘Great Again’

Abukar Arman

Published

 22 hours ago 

on

 August 23, 2020

In recent weeks the confluence of many issues and events of different shades and dangers made Somalia’s political situation more complicated. This being the last year of the current administration, challenges of that nature are not entirely new, but the intensity and volatility of these developments are.

However, this piece is not an attempt to chronicle each one of said challenges and lay the blame on one political actor or another, but to illustrate how the dirty and notoriously impulsive local politics that dominate the discourse has been turning the attention away from Somalia’s national interest and international predators that are elbowing each other for zero-sum booty control.  

The most critical being the American guerilla diplomats’ covert coup against their British counterparts that has been protecting Soma Oil and Gas’ exclusive interests. These diplomats adhere to no international laws and often employ shady tactics that neither the U.K. Foreign Office nor the US State Department would be willing to acknowledge.

Who Didn’t Start The Fire?

On Saturday July 25, the Lower House of the Somali parliament has held an extraordinary session passed a vote of no-confidence motion to oust Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire amidst electoral rancor that kept the federal states drifting away from the center.

Interestingly, the ousting came only a few days after he successfully orchestrated Dhusamareeb Agreement signed by President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo and the federal states and when there was less than six months remaining from the current government’s term.

After the election related items on the agenda were discussed, the Speaker of the Parliament, Mursal Mohamed Abdurahman, literally rammed in a no-confidence motion that was not even part of the agenda, ignored the ‘point of order’ raised by some MPs, and continued the hand counting. Within an hour or so, the surgical removal was complete: 170 ‘yes’ & 8 ‘no’. After ensuing commotion by the objecting MPs, the Speaker gaveled out of the session. Mission accomplished.

 Cold War Beween Partners 

Despite the popular perception that this was solely driven by that all too familiar ‘xilligii kala guurka’ (time to part ways) politics, this was the last phase of the diplomatic cleansing of the U.K. influence- Khaire. He was Soma Oil and Gas’ East Africa man whose initial appointment this analyst has vehemently opposed.

It was the culmination of a systematic, delicately executed overthrow to end UK’s dominance of the Somalia affairs. It started with the recruitment of Qatar to directly counter-balance against UAE and bankroll Farmajo’s election. It was not a hard sell under since Qatar was under a long simmering UAE/Saudi Arabia led aggression since the Arab Spring. Moreover, it may be worth noting that Qatar already had on the ground a network of brokers who in the past provided dark money to former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration for other projects.

Once Farmajo became the president, the systematic process to cut off all advisors, technocrats, security experts, and members of the Council of Ministers who were from or were associated with UK began. In a parallel process, the relationship with UAE had to be suspended. This was critical for mainly two reasons: One, it would get rid of UK’s cash cow of corruption. “Let me call our friends” was the notorious code of reassurance used by British diplomates that UAE embassy will be delivering the cash. This under the radar process kept their hands clean. Two—perhaps more important than the former—it would pull the plug off on the (UAE-funded) ICJ maritime case.

Though locally it is considered a patriotic initiative taken by former president Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud, this was a Soma Oil and Gas project. ICJ rule in favor of Somalia meant another corrupt giveaway to this shady company that illegally owns Somalia’s natural resources. Farmajo is on board with a behind the curtain deal to pull the case out of ICJ and settle for a ‘negotiated’ deal with Kenya that brings in new partners. This may explain why there were multiple postponements of public hearings- something that, contrary to the Somali government’s claim, could not have been unilaterally done by the court. Hence, an official announcement after the extension is secured should shock no one.

 Going back to the first major step; it was followed by the takeover of the command center- UNSOM. Merely two months into his new position, the former Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General, Nicholas Haysom, was accused of interfering in a sovereign state’s internal affairs. Tough I was never a big fan of the dubious role that the British diplomatic team and their field commanders at UNSOM played before Haysom, I was critical of the persona non grata charade and I suspected it being a “a cover up”. So Ambassador Haysom was shortly replaced by an American, Ambassador James Swan.

This was followed by pressuring Qatar to drop Prime Minister Khaire from the recipients of the electoral facilitation cash that brought him and President Farmajo to power. Khaire and his network of predatory capitalists spent two weeks in and around Doha meeting with certain elements in the (useful) king-making business. The answer was simple: the game has changed and you are on your own, old partner.

As soon as it became clear to Khaire that he could neither be part of any extension that may be granted to his partner (Farmajo) nor could he expect cash-loads coming from Qatar, he had to resort to a political kamikaze operation labled as a peace process. He reached out to the federal-states, especially Puntland and Jubbaland that lost trust on the central government, as his most viable partners; hence the Dhusamareeb Conference.

Dominance and Its Risks

Farmajo went to participate in the Dhusamareeb conference with his own uncompromising agenda: grant me a term extension of two years so I could marshal the nation to ‘one-person-one-vote electoral system’.  After Dhusamareeb One and Two, the federal-states and the central government reached an agreement: Farmajo will get no extension and a technical committee made of all stakeholders would determine the kind of election and it would be unveiled and ratified at Dhusamareeb Three.     

On Aug 13, with Khaire out of the way and Farmajo seeming to have gained a momentum for his term-extension agenda, Ambassador Donald Yamamoto’s office tweeted this:

“@US2Somalia is eagerly waiting for #Dhusamareb 3 Mtg results. The need for wide spread consultations & genuine compromise is key. The election model needs broad based support from FGS, FMS, Parliament, & other stakeholders. Timely elections, no mandate extensions. #Somalia.”

And on Aug 20, as soon one-sided Dhusamareeb Three shenanigan to ensure the extension concluded, the same office tweeted:

“@US2SOMALIA has worked for inclusion of all views at the table in #Dhusamareb3, but can’t help those absent. Spoilers withholding participation sacrifice democracy for own ambitions. Parties will need to move forward with timely model agreed.”

Though these statements are reminiscent of a bygone era known as the ‘transitional period’ it supports my last article that Somalia is under a dysfunctional trusteeship, I venture say it was intended to serve, on the one hand, as a reassurance for UK and other donor nations that US is not supporting an extension; on the other hand, to put a thumb on the scale and coerce the federal-states to march behind Farmajo. It is the only way to harvest what was sowed a few years earlier. But, since the term extension appears to be like striking a matchstick over a pool of kerosene, it must be done through a legitimate process- the federal parliament.

Execution Express

Meanwhile, following Trump‘s patented method of appointing care-takers to a number key posts to avoid congressional scrutiny, Farmajo appoints a Care-taker Prime Minister with a free-hand to exercise full authority over the Council of Ministers. This flies in the face of the very constitution that Farmajo often references to underscore the power vested in the federal parliament. So exercise and expedite to the max is what the care-taker did.

Immediately upon assuming his new post, the care-taker Prime Minister, Mahdi Guled, dashed through the approval of a few international projects and appointed the Somali Petroleum Authority without any transparency, without capacity and integrity review of the members of this highly critical body of trustees. This same questionable authority is all of sudden set to make a critical decision that could haunt Somalia for generations. The method, the timing, and the haste should raise a red flag. 

 Who Owns It?

These controversial events of the past three plus years that shook the foundation of Somalia’s political structure confirm a looming danger that some analysts were warning against- a perfect storm emanating from resource curse, geographical curse, and clannism curse.

There are two things that one must keep in mind when conducting any political affairs or developing any strategies for domestic or international end:

One, there is no such thing as ‘spontaneous combustion’ because all things political are driven by an overt or a covert objective, or both. Two, if you are not interested or are not able to assess behavioral patterns or connect the dots, you are better off finding another career to pursue.

2021 is here and not much has changed since the last election. The political situation is in total disarray, drone attacks reached the danger zone and security continues to worsen, corruption still remains a skill in high demand, sovereignty still remains a pie in the sky, and many hands continue to operate inside the cookie jar of resources. So long as the dominant political discourse remains on clans, personality politics, and methods of transitioning power, expect the wheel of exploitation to gain more ground and the predators to get more emboldened.   

Somalia still remains a political prospect that is between a romantic ideal and corrosive reality; between conformity with clannism and the reformation toward statehood; between a living idea and a dying potential; between yearning for liberty and enabling the subjugators; between individual interest and collective benefit.

An enlightened intergenerational movement to reclaim Somalia is needed more than ever; also, leaders with vision and strategy that transcend the clan mentality in order to reimagine a new nation and put the common good and national interest before all others.

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Saturday 4 July 2020

Coronavirus Is Battering Africa’s Growing Middle Class


From Kenya to Nigeria, South Africa to Rwanda, the pandemic is decimating the livelihoods of the once-stable workers who were helping to drive Africa’s economic expansion.
Credit...Khadija Farah for The New York Times
NAIROBI, Kenya — James Gichina started out 15 years ago as a driver shuttling travelers from the airport, worked his way up to safari guide, and with the help of some bank loans, bought two minivans of his own to ferry vacationers around.
His clients were, as he is, members of Africa’s growing middle class — bankers from Nigeria, tech entrepreneurs from South Africa, and fellow Kenyans who could finally afford trips to enjoy their own country’s beaches and wildlife preserves.
But when the coronavirus pandemic cratered the tourist industry and the economy, Mr. Gichina removed the seats from his minibus and started using it to hawk eggs and vegetables. With what he now earns, he said, he can barely afford to pay rent, buy food or send his 9-year-old son to school.
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“We have been working hard to build better lives,” Mr. Gichina, 35, said of his colleagues in the tourist sector. Now, he said, “We have nothing.”
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Credit...Khadija Farah for The New York Times
As the coronavirus surges in many countries in Africa, it is threatening to push as many as 58 million people in the region into extreme poverty, experts at the World Bank say. But beyond the devastating consequences for the continent’s most vulnerable people, the pandemic is also whittling away at one of Africa’s signature achievements: the growth of its middle class.
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For the last decade, Africa’s middle class has been pivotal to the educational, political and economic development across the continent. New business owners and entrepreneurs have created jobs that, in turn, gave others a leg up as well.
Educated, tech-savvy families and young people with money to spare have fed the demand for consumer goods, called for democratic reforms, expanded the talent pool at all levels of society, and pushed for high-quality schools and health care.
About 170 million out of Africa’s 1.3 billion people are now classified as middle class. But about eight million of them could be thrust into poverty because of the coronavirus and its economic fallout, according to World Data Lab, a research organization.
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It’s a setback that may be felt for years to come.
“The tragedy is that because Africa is not growing fast, this collapse of the middle class could take several years to recover,” said Homi Kharas, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the co-founder of the World Data Lab.
Africa’s middle class tripled over the past 30 years, by some estimates, spurred by job opportunities in sectors like technology, tourism and manufacturing. But now that the region is facing its first recession in 25 years, millions of educated people living in urban centers could fall victim to the extreme income inequality that has defined Africa for decades.
The rising middle class has been “critical for the future prospects of African economies as they stimulate long-term growth, social progress, an inclusive and prosperous society and effective and accountable governance,” said Landry Signé, author of “Unlocking Africa’s Business Potential.” The coronavirus “will drastically delay wages and hold back the dreams of Africa’s middle class,” he said.
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Credit...Khadija Farah for The New York Times
Governments across Africa responded differently to the coronavirus, but Kenya was among those that closed borders, imposed curfews and restricted movement between counties. In Nairobi, the capital, malls were once touted as a symbol of a rising middle class. Now their owners are furloughing employees, shuttering stores and desperately trying to survive the crisis.
When Kenya first announced lockdown restrictions in March, there was almost no foot traffic at the Junction mall, where Nairobi’s middle class had once gravitated to dine and shop in more than 100 stores.
Eastleigh, a bustling area with dozens of malls, hotels, lodges and banks, was also put under a total lockdown in early May after a jump in reported coronavirus cases.
Maryan Bashir, who owns three stores in Eastleigh that sell mattresses and curtains, said traders like her were already worried about whether they could still get supplies from China as the pandemic began to affect imports. But the lockdown left them reeling from lack of customers.
It also cut employment. Out of 12 of her co-workers, only three lived within the locked-down area and could report to work.
The authorities lifted the curfew from Eastleigh in early June, but Ms. Bashir said it will be a long time before shop owners like her are able to make the same profits they made before the pandemic.
“The landlords are still asking for rent,” she said, “but if we are not earning anything, how do we even pay?”
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Credit...Khadija Farah for The New York Times
The economic fallout of the Covid-19 outbreak is also being felt among the middle class in Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy. Hit by low oil revenues in the pandemic, the West African nation faces increasing unemployment rates and a recession that could last until 2021, according to the International Monetary Fund.
As demand for goods and services crashed, small businesses and entrepreneurs dependent on cash flow found themselves increasingly in dire straits.
Biola Kazeem established his sports marketing company, Elev8 Sports Entertainment, six years ago, marrying his passion for sports with his college degree in communication. But as sports leagues worldwide canceled or postponed events, Mr. Kazeem said he lost 70 percent of his business and had to put half of his 11-member staff on leave without pay.
Despite facing financial challenges in the early years, “nothing absolutely prepared us for this,” Mr. Kazeem said in a phone interview from Lagos.
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Credit...Yagazie Emezi for The New York Times
In Zimbabwe, which has been in economic free fall for years, the pandemic and the ensuing restrictions are threatening the solvency of those who have built a bridge into the middle class.
For years, Madeline Chiveso’s restaurant in downtown Harare, Zimbabwe, served professionals such as bankers, journalists and engineers flocking to work. But as infections rose and the restrictions tightened, there were no customers to serve. She was forced to close the restaurant.
She used to make $350 a day, and now makes nothing. She is using her savings to pay bills, she said, jeopardizing her dream of one day owning her own home.
“The future looks surely uncertain because nobody knows how this would end,” said Ms. Chiveso, who is 46 and a single mother of two daughters, both in college.
Mr. Kharas, of the World Data Lab, defined the middle class in Africa as households that spend anywhere between $11 and $110 per capita per day.
What distinguishes the middle class from the poor, said Razia Khan, the chief economist for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered bank, is the ability to earn a steady income. But because of the pandemic, many more people across Africa are at risk of being “knocked back into poverty” because of lack of jobs, unemployment benefits or any social safety net, she said.
The pandemic is also posing a threat to nascent industries supported by governments in Africa in recent years to boost the number of middle-income earners.
Rwanda, which announced aspirations to become a middle-income nation by 2035, supported the local textile and fashion industries to limit imports of used clothing from the United States, and boost manufacturing.
Matthew Rugamba, 30, created House of Tayo in 2011, building it into one of the leading brands in Rwanda’s burgeoning fashion scene. Mr. Rugamba gained enough notice for his designs to be worn in Hollywood, at the premiere of the movie “Black Panther.”
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Credit...Chris Schwagga
But as Rwanda enforced one of the toughest lockdowns in Africa, Mr. Rugamba’s store shut its doors, only to open several weeks later to almost no customers. Even though he’s pivoted to making masks and introduced a delivery service, business has not been the same.
“We were at a point where people value the work that we do,” Mr. Rugamba said. But with the pandemic, he said, “you go through periods where you are worried that this is something that I have invested nine years of my life in, and is it going to be there tomorrow?”
More governments are offering financial support and tax breaks to businesses, and urging proprietors to hold onto their employees even if they reduce production or services, said Mr. Kharas, of the World Data Lab.
Economists like Ms. Khan said that emerging markets in Africa, no strangers to economic shocks, have proven resilient in the past, and could come out stronger when the pandemic is over.
But that hope is likely a long way off for Mr. Gichina, the safari guide now selling eggs to survive. He works for the tour company Bonfire Adventures, which was founded in 2008 by an entrepreneur named Simon Kabu, specifically to serve Africa’s growing middle class.
Once a milk delivery guy and conductor on the matatu minibuses used for transit in Kenya, Mr. Kabu grew up in Kenya’s central highlands to a mother who was a farmer and a father who was a retired civil servant.
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Credit...Khadija Farah for The New York Times
But by starting a business that served the ever-growing travel needs of the middle class, he grew Bonfire Adventures into an award-winning tours company with 10 offices, 200 permanent staff and 300 drivers and guides.
The coronavirus has gutted all that, pushing Mr. Kabu, 45, to lay off his employees en masse. The only staff members currently working, he said, are accountants who are processing refunds for customers unable to travel.
Mr. Gichina hopes business will resume soon — especially as he dreads losing out on the peak wildebeest migration starting in late June, which usually draws tourists from across the world.
“The banks are pressuring us a lot,” he said of the urgency to settle his loans. “They are saying you have to pay,” but, he asked, “where should we get the money?”
Lynsey Chutel contributed reporting from Johannesburg, South Africa and Jeffrey Moyo from Harare, Zimbabwe.
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