Ethnic Federalism Could Lead to Election Violence

Addis Ababa — Criticised as system of dividing and ruling people according to their ethnic groups, Ethiopia's federalism has just become a bone of contention.




A recent international report warns if this system, and the resultant lack of governance, continues the entire Horn of Africa could be destabilised.




The report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) warned that unless the ruling coalition, Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), improved governance it would risk ethnic conflict from the over 70 different ethnic groups in the country during the 2010
federal and regional elections. The ICG also cautioned the entire Horn of Africa could be destabilised because of the expected conflict.




But Ethiopia's Prime Minster, who has been in power for 18 years and who is expected to stand for another five-year term of office, has dismissed the report. "The report is not worth the price of writing it up," Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said.




But not everyone is in agreement. The opposition have denounced the system of ethnic federalism as a way for the EPRDF to stay in power, while academics have said that it is a system that remains impossible to implement.




The opposition has agreed with the report saying that there is a high probability for ethnic conflict in the upcoming elections.




"The system (of rule) has not satisfied neither those who supported federalism nor the ones who opposed it," Dr. Merera Gudina told IPS. Merera is Co-Chair of the opposition Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC). The Oromo ethnic group is the country's largest. "This unfair and undemocratic system dominated by one (Tigrayan) ethnic group (the strong base of the ruling part) will lead to crisis. That is why I think ICG's report is prepared with superior understanding of the realities in Ethiopia."




Ethnic federalism is a system of administration where regional states - formed based on geographical settlement of ethnic groups - share part of their power with a central government to run their collective affairs on their behalf.