Anarchy: Uganda cannot sustain a North African style of revolution

By Julius Barigaba
Posted Monday, May 2 2011 at 14:09

Even as the country descends into anarchy, the possibility of a North African style revolution in Uganda is still not on the horizon, say political scientists.

Commenting on the last week's events that saw opposition leader Kizza Besigye brutalised for the fourth time in a fortnight, political commentators say that with the military and civilian forces solidly behind him after a recent raft of promotions, the current people-led protests pose no immediate threat to President Yoweri Museveni.

Just when he appeared to have caved in to opposition demands and pressures on his government in the wake of high fuel and food prices, all hell broke loose last week as security forces put on a show that is certain to lead to further chaos and bloodshed.

A day after regaining his freedom, on Thursday last week opposition strong man Dr Kizza Besigye was accosted in his car, three kilometres from the city centre, having driven from his home 21 kilometres northeast of the capital.

Plain clothes security men, led by one Gilbert Bwana Arinaitwe, used a hammer and pistol to shatter the windows of Besigye's car.

After a three-hour shower of tear gas and pepper spray, the Forum for Democratic Change leader was dragged out of his car together with his aides, beaten up and later stuffed into the narrow space between the floor and seats of a police pick-up truck, driven away; and later arraigned at the Kasangati Court.

Political historians say, the regime has now gone the full cycle of the seven preconditions for a revolution. However, the one missing link is support of the security forces.

"Our state security has an anarchical mind, firmly grounded in this regime's culture. As we know, the ruling party's political school teaches that human beings are just biological substances and the only people are those who agree with the regime. In that regard, we are not likely to see a revolution but anarchy," said Dr Mwambutsya Ndebesa, professor of history at Makerere University.

Dr Ndebesa says Uganda's protests are more in the fashion of the uprisings against Gaddafi; they lack the spark of the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions at the start of this year, which were both galvanised by support from the armed forces.

"The determinant force for a revolution is the military (joining with the people). From what we have seen, the behaviour of our security forces cannot lead to a revolution because the military here is akin to Gaddafi's," he argued.

Other factors hamper the kind of mass uprisings that the opposition wants. First, most of Uganda's population is rural. It takes time for issues to crystallise clearly among rural populations who do not entirely depend on a monetised economy for their day-to-day demands.

It is also feared that an uprising can degenerate into an ethnic-based movement, a development that would be counterproductive — this very government came to power on an ethnic ticket of southern Bantu resisting Nilotic oppression.

The current reign of terror, insiders say, points at a leadership in disarray. The response to these protests has taken on dimensions that were not part of the original plan because central command has been lost.
Influential business lobby, Kampala City Traders Association, had threatened to join the fray protesting the hiked trade license fees recently introduced. Against this pressure Museveni made concessions lest he risk paralysing what is left of the country's economic activity.

At the start of the campaign on April 11, police chief Kale Kayihura favoured giving police escort to the opposition leaders on their Walk to Work protests. But an angry Museveni asked why Besigye should be afforded such luxury. "Are we now going to turn police into a force to escort couples on their wedding?" he is said to have asked.

Thus, Museveni gave the orders for Besigye to be roughed up, every time he attempts his protests. So far, police have killed five people since April 11, including a two-year old in Masaka, west of Kampala. By the time we went to press, there were unconfirmed reports of more people killed during Friday's shooting in the city. Many more victims are nursing bullet wounds.

Schools and hospitals have not been spared from fumes of tear gas, while about 200 protestors are locked up in various places around the country.

Museveni was also uncomfortable with reports that Western diplomats had been watching the images of violence and tipped off the ICC, compelling him to order the police to tone down. Yet the re-arrest of Besigye contradicts this "change of approach."

Sources indicate that when Besigye was released from his week long incarceration at Nakasongola Prison, 113 kilometre north of Kampala, some quarters within the security machinery took it as a win for the colonel.

"They don't want to concede that Besigye is the winner in this game. Whatever happens, he will be arrested and released again. Some extremist pro-regime forces don't want to see that because it has repercussions for their own jobs and positions in the regime," said our source, who has worked with political intelligence under Museveni.

Clearly, two opposing views have emerged; one favours repression while the other supports dialogue.
As these cracks appear in the government, the opposition has vowed not to let up. Should the dialogue meeting take place this week, Museveni will be in for a shock.

The opposition have demands that he would not want to countenance — even if he has agreed to dialogue — because it will table issues that will leave his legitimacy for a new five-year mandate badly bruised.

Is Uganda ready for change.

Ugandan political scientists say revolution is ripe when these seven preconditions exist, pointing out that in Uganda's current political standoff, one crucial precondition is missing.
First came the period of unrest triggered by the disputed February 18 election. On March 8, UPC president Olara Otunnu announced the Campaign for Free and Fair Elections in which he argued that peaceful protests were to consume the country.

A month later, the best excuse that resonates with the masses presented itself: Double digit inflation and soaring fuel and food prices, beyond the reach of the average Ugandan family. As was the case in the French Revolution, this happens to be the first precondition for an uprising.
The Ugandan regime has also bred a dangerous breed of citizens — a generation of jobless intellectuals. There is concern that out of 400,000 university graduates every year, only less than 10 per cent are absorbed into the formal sector or self-employment.

The Kampala regime is the epitome of incompetence—service delivery is nonexistent, corruption is the de facto way of doing things and the Treasury has been clueless for a while now on how it will sort out the mess created by the ruling party's raid on consolidated fund to fund its campaigns.
When Museveni attempted to explain away the escalation in prices, he echoed Marie Antoinette's bread and cake quip. He reasoned that Ugandans should drive one car instead of three.. He has forgotten that most Ugandans do not own a bicycle, leave alone a car!

Ugandans have seen a failure in leadership; there are different centres of command whose orders are at cross purpose. This happens because the extremists in the regime want to hijack authority, rather than lose out in a democratic process. One of the signs of this is a reign of terror because the radicals would rather terrorise citizens than explain.
The regime's fiscal irresponsibility is well-documented: $740 million fighter jets, $1.3 million for Museveni's swearing in bash and over half a trillion dollars spent on elections are some of the most recent cases that have stirred-up public anger.

Finally, the masses cannot stand the use of force against unarmed citizens in the name of crushing peaceful protests.