Members of the al-Qa'ida-aligned al-Shabaab Islamist group in Somalia on a military exercise last year. Picture: AFP Source: AFP
WITH the death of Osama bin Laden and the improving strategic position of Western forces in Afghanistan, Yemen and Somalia appear to be the last strongholds of the wounded al-Qa'ida terrorist network. Its influence in Iraq is waning but still a concern.
The US wants to move quickly to take advantage of bin Laden's removal. The White House has pledged to use the death of al-Qa'ida's leader to destroywhat remains of the organisation he established in 1988. President Barack Obama's counter-terrorism adviser John Brennan says the US plans to destroy al-Qa'ida. "We're determined to do so and we believe we can."
CIA director Leon Panetta describes computers, discs, DVDs and documents seized by US special forces at bin Laden's Pakistani hideout as impressive, while another official calls the material a motherlode of intelligence.
The intelligence windfall promises to jolt al-Qa'ida's network and could force its adherents to initiate communications that could make them more easily detectable by listening Western agencies.
A CIA taskforce, which has conducted a preliminary analysis of the material, is hunting for leads on the location of bin Laden's second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who is expected to become al-Qa'ida's new leader. The taskforce is also looking for information about new plots, names and whereabouts of other terrorists and any evidence of whether members of the Pakistani government helped conceal bin Laden in his Abbottabad compound.
"The real benefit to our security from the raid is we've recovered a treasure trove of intelligence that can be used to go after bad guys all over the world," US senator Tom Carper says. "Our challenge now is to make the most of it."
If al-Qa'ida operatives begin planning retaliatory attacks, as expected, their communications could appear on US monitoring systems, even if they use couriers to avoid more easily detected electronic communications.
US intelligence agencies believe Zawahiri and other al-Qa'ida leaders may fast-forward plans for terror strikes to prove the organisation remains viable.
Pakistani authorities, meanwhile, have about 10 of the bin Laden compound's residents in custody and have begun questioning them. It remains to be seen if the interrogations bear any fruit, given widespread doubts about Pakistan's commitment to US anti-terrorist efforts.
One of the most important leads would be information leading to Zawahiri, who may be on the move in an attempt to avoid the same fate that befell bin Laden.
Scores of US officials are poring over the captured material. "Can you imagine what's on Osama bin Laden's hard drive? It's going to be great even if only 10 per cent of it is actionable," one agent says.Continued
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