Dear Obbo Mallasaa:
This is a supplement to letter # 2, in which I attempted to convince you that your current path would lead to a dead end. In this one, I try to make a somewhat detailed case why your grand vision of an EPRDF-dominated Ethiopia is destined for failure. “It’s the economy, stupid.”1
Your dream of transforming Ethiopia into a middle-income country in five years notwithstanding, it will take a while to alleviate the deep-rooted economic problems of the country under the best of circumstances. Even with the appropriate and well-targeted policy prescriptions, serious heavy lifting is needed to create the institutions required to begin to address the myriad economic malaise (famine, malnutrition, severe structural unemployment, high inflation, lack of proper housing, lack of economic security, disease, etc.) the country has become infamous for. It is believable that Ethiopia’s GDP has been expanding phenomenally in the last few years as claimed. However, even if it is possible to sustain similar rates of economic growth in the coming years (highly unlikely), it will take another eight or nine years for the country to make it to the bottom of the World Bank’s list of low-middle income countries. I’m sure you understand the huge gulf that exists between the rate of economic growth and the level of economic development, but you often seem to intentionally confuse the two distinct concepts, confusing the general public. The purpose is clear: you are sending a subtle message to the average Joe, who is struggling to put food on the table, to wait patiently because help is just around the corner. Since hunger and absolute deprivation can not wait; however, you will have to continue to feed the hungry through food aid; thus, your much publicized Growth and Transformation Plan will be revealed as nothing more than a propaganda tool.Continued
This is a supplement to letter # 2, in which I attempted to convince you that your current path would lead to a dead end. In this one, I try to make a somewhat detailed case why your grand vision of an EPRDF-dominated Ethiopia is destined for failure. “It’s the economy, stupid.”1
Your dream of transforming Ethiopia into a middle-income country in five years notwithstanding, it will take a while to alleviate the deep-rooted economic problems of the country under the best of circumstances. Even with the appropriate and well-targeted policy prescriptions, serious heavy lifting is needed to create the institutions required to begin to address the myriad economic malaise (famine, malnutrition, severe structural unemployment, high inflation, lack of proper housing, lack of economic security, disease, etc.) the country has become infamous for. It is believable that Ethiopia’s GDP has been expanding phenomenally in the last few years as claimed. However, even if it is possible to sustain similar rates of economic growth in the coming years (highly unlikely), it will take another eight or nine years for the country to make it to the bottom of the World Bank’s list of low-middle income countries. I’m sure you understand the huge gulf that exists between the rate of economic growth and the level of economic development, but you often seem to intentionally confuse the two distinct concepts, confusing the general public. The purpose is clear: you are sending a subtle message to the average Joe, who is struggling to put food on the table, to wait patiently because help is just around the corner. Since hunger and absolute deprivation can not wait; however, you will have to continue to feed the hungry through food aid; thus, your much publicized Growth and Transformation Plan will be revealed as nothing more than a propaganda tool.Continued
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