ighting in and around the presidential palace in Mogadishu and the strategic areas in the vicinity of the Somali capital's international airport quashed hopes this week that the Transitional National Government (TNG) of Somalia is ready to placate its militant Islamist foes. TNG political heavyweights' failure to accommodate the demands of the militant Islamists to institute an Islamist state in Somalia is the most dangerous sign of the TNG's weakness. Without domestic consensus, Somali militias tied to political groups resort to violence to impose their ideological will.
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AU peacekeepers assist government troops during clashes in southern Mogadishu as rebel forces try to push them back towards the presidential palace
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This observation leads in two possible directions. The first is that the repeated military setbacks of the Somali government forces have starkly illustrated the inability of Western powers, in spite of open and unconstrained support for the TNG, to influence events in war-torn Somalia. The meddling of neighbours fearing an Islamist takeover in Somalia will undoubtedly intensify, complicating matters further. Even so, Ethiopia, the most powerful nation in the Horn of Africa, after a series of military setbacks in Somalia, will be loath to be dragged back in.
The second prognosis is that all sides must yield ground if the Al-Mujahideen Al-Shabab (Youthful Fighters), the main armed opposition group in Somalia is to leave violence behind.
The key question that nobody in the West cared to ask himself or herself is why democracy Western-style offers little to attract the vast majority of Somali people. That, in turn, suggests that militant Islam does have a hold on Somali society.
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