Unlike Uganda, Egypt was already ripe for a revolution

As the curtain comes down on the presidential and parliamentary battle, we sigh with relief that it came and went without any major incident. And as we carry out our postmortems, I hope it is with the intent to understand what it is that the voter wants from the leaders they have chosen. Of course there had to be winners and losers in this race and as the losers come to terms with their loss, they have five years to reflect upon their tactical errors and prepare better battle plans for next time.

While we focus on the way forward, we are confronted by the hypocrisy of those that don’t respect the voice of the people; in fact, I find the advert carried by civil society organisations in the media on February 22, 2011, rather odd. The call to leaders seems almost like a call to demonstrate against what they consider to be “the potential of the electoral process to plunge the country into a state of anarchy”. It could be that the advert was meant to appear before the election but considering that it came after, I would like to urge caution.

Many times things are not what they appear. As some leaders think what to do next, I would like to take them back to the events unfolding in North Africa that may have emboldened some. The demonstrations of the people, though spontaneous, took a turn that none of the demonstrators really want.

Beneath the surface, Egypt was a state in political turmoil waiting for a spark, and the demonstrations provided it. The unemployment and lack of drugs in hospitals notwithstanding, there was already a power struggle brewing between Mubarak and members of his Security Council. The Security Council had pushed Mubarak for long to declare his successor and when he finally showed his preference for Omar Suleiman last year, the forces within his government aligned themselves and waited for a spark. The demonstrators asking the army to stand down provided what they needed to overthrow their leader. As it is, one dictator has been replaced by someone who most likely will end up a dictator

Fast forward to Libya and Muammar Gaddafi - it is most certainly the eleventh hour of his reign. But contrary to popular belief, Gaddafi shall be felled by the battle between his sons, not the demonstrators. Saif Al (second born), the pseudo human rights activist, and fourth born Mutassim Gaddafi, the retired Lieutenant Colonel who tried to kill daddy Gaddafi once, have found a way to take advantage of the demonstrations. Saif Al is the favourite (according to Gaddafi) to succeed and Mutassim is the erratic National Security adviser.

While Saif Al attacks “those” behind the increased demonstrations that have made Gaddafi resort to hired guns, he has most definitely secured for himself a crimes against humanity charge at The Hague. It was fun though watching daddy Gaddafi in what appeared like a dungeon calling all and sundry rats, rabbits, long bearded dogs living outside while he fought. And you wonder why everyone is resigning from the mighty Green Party? Oh dear, revolution stories have all reached their expiry date. To put it in our generational speak, Twakowa!

So while we hear a few Ugandans beat the war drums under the umbrella of electoral irregularities, be not confused by mass demonstrations to achieve desired change. The sparks were the Egyptian succession battle and two nappy boys killing people for their ambition. When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.

Ms Mbabazi is a social critic
lenina2007@gmail.com