As we think about what to do in Afghanistan and whether to send another 40,000 troops to Afghanistan, we need to understand who the enemy is and whether we can win some of them over. In Iraq, we co-opted former insurgents and turned them against Al Qaeda. The question is whether we can do the same in Afghanistan.
by: unknown photographer
Arms markets are common as vegetable stores in Afghanistan
There are a lot of armchair analysts that have left comments on my last post on Afghanistan. I respect those that know Afghanistan. I welcome discussion and comment from thoughtful readers and as for the venal ones… Well, we’ll just let them wallow in their screams.
As I said in my last post, I am not sure if we can achieve a permanent win. I am not even sure we would want a win because of the ENORMOUSLY HUGEcosts of a permanent sustainable win.
The point of this article is to show the complexity of the Afghanistan situation. An additional 40,000 troops may or may not make a difference. In my opinion, it is far more important to get the support of Pakistan and the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate. You’ll see later why I separate the two entities. A real partnership with the ISI can greatly weaken Al Qaeda and the main Taliban factions.
Also we keep on talking about the Taliban. Well, we are fighting more than the Taliban and if we are going to send another 40,000 soldiers, we need to know who we’re sending them against.
The largest force we face are local insurgent Pashtuns who have organized against American occupation. The Taliban are not driven by Al Qaeda principles. They are driven by the desire to drive a foreign army away. The Taliban’s relationship with Al Qaeda is complicated and is a relationship borne by convenience and “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”.
If there are some learned analysts out there, could you share insights on the web of relationships between insurgent groups, the Pakistani ISI and Al Qaeda?
Here’s the list of insurgent groups (with the estimated number of fighters) in Afghanistan.
Number 1 – 30,000 Taliban in Afghanistan
The Taliban are 95% Pashtun and Sunni Muslim specifically Wahhabi and Deobandi. Most of their money comes from drug economy and donations from Gulf Arab money sources who do it for “religious reasons”. Because of this, there is a direct relationship between the American thirst for oil and the oil revenues that Saudi SunniWahhabis use to send to the Taliban. Think long and hard when you buy a gas guzzler.
The Taliban is trained and assisted by Pakistan’s Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI) Directorate or ISID affiliated elements including Kashmiris, HuJI, LeT, HuM (more on these acronyms later) and some Uzbeks. To this very day, Pakistan’s central government has not been able to control the power of the ISID. The Taliban are also assisted by Al Qaeda in terms of funding and foreign fighters.
Pakistan’s support of the Taliban makes logistics very difficult for the US because of their support allows the Taliban to operate freely in FATA tribal areas, Khyber Pass and theTorkhum Gate. Despite the Pakistani operations in the Swat Valley, ISI operatives still support elements of the Taliban.
We can GREATLY weaken the Taliban if we can get the full cooperation of the Pakistanis AND the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate. We can achieve this through a combination of diplomacy, assure Pakistan’s security vis-a-vis India and bluntly — pay them off. If we cannot control the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate, we will NOT succeed.
Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha is the head Pakistan’s ISI. The US was said to have lobbied for Pasha’s appointment but the problem remains that many of the ISID’s officers support the Taliban and the larger “insurgent syndicate”. It is Pakistan’s shadow government. ISI Generals definitely support the “freedom movement” in Kashmir against “Indian occupation forces”. The ISI is a large military itself with six to eight divisions, totaling 10,000 elite personnel in Pakistan. The ISI is in-charge of internal security and counterintelligence operations within the Pakistani military and operates much like the CIA outside Pakistan. Elements within the ISI support, train, equip and give sanctuary to the Taliban and its allied groups. Funding for the ISI comes from the Pakistani government and jihadists outside of Pakistan.
Of course the irony is — The US is the largest source of foreign and military aid for Pakistan.
Number 2 – 15,000 TTP Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan
This group is the Pakistani Taliban vis-a-vis the Afghan Taliban. This was led by Baitullah Masoud who was killed in a Predator attack last month. He was succeeded by a distant relative Hakimullah Mehsud. Being that the Pashtuns straddle both Pakistan and Afghanistan, this insurgent force are mainly Pashtuns from Pakistan and are Sunni-Deobandi. It has a very strange relationship with Pakistan because they want to overthrow the central government yet they are supported by certain ISI elements.
TTP’s stated goal is to overthrow the secular Pakistani government and establish a Taliban regime and the Islamic Emirate of Pakistan. They are very anti-US and probably cannot be bought or bribed. They train and have logistical bases in Western Pakistan. Most of their support comes from many high ranking officers in the Pakistani Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate. Their specialties includes IEDs, suicide attacks, mass casualty bombings, mortars, rockets, assassinations, kidnappings, executions, raids, assaults and Internet operations.
Number 3 – 5,000 TNSM Tehrik-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (Current leader is a cleric named Maulana Fazullah)
Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi is a Pakistani militant group whose objective is to enforce Sharia law in the country. The rebel group took over much of Swat in 2007. It was founded by Sufi Muhammad in 1992, and was tolerated by Pakistan’s central government till it was banned by President Pervez Musharraf in 2002.
The organization is active in the areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border especially Swat and Malakand but including Dargai and Chenagai. It supports the Taliban forces in Afghanistan. In the aftermath of the 2007 siege of Lal Masjid, Fazlullah’s forces and Baitullah Mehsud’s Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) formed an alliance. Fazlullah and his army now reportedly receive orders from Hakimullah Mehsud.
Number 4 – 3,000 LeT Lashkar-e-Taiba
Lashkar-e-Taiba was founded by Hafiz Muhammad Saeed and Zafar Iqbal in the Kunar province of Afghanistan in 1990 and is currently based in Muridke near Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan and operates several training camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. In November 2008, Lashkar-e-Taiba launched attacks in Mumbai, India. The lone surviving gunman, Ajmal Amir Kasab, captured by Indian authorities admitted the attacks were planned and executed by the organization.
Lashkar-e-Taiba members have carried out major attacks against India and its objective is to introduce an Islamic state in South Asia and to “liberate” Muslims residing in Indian-administered Kashmir.
Some breakaway Lashkar members have also been accused of carrying out attacks in Pakistan, particularly in Karachi, to mark its opposition to the policies of former President Pervez Musharraf. As of December 2008 U.S. intelligence officials believed that Pakistan’s main intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), continued to give LeT intelligence help and protection.
Number 5 – 2,000 LeJ Lashkar-e-Janghvi (mil wing Sipah-e-Sahaba)
Lashkar e Jhangvi (LJ) is the militant offshoot of the Sunni Deobandi sectarian group Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan. After it was banned by Pakistani President Musharraf many of its members then sought refuge in Afghanistan with the Taliban. This is the organization linked to the murder of Daniel Pearl.
They move freely between Pakistan and Afghanistan. They’re into IEDs, assassinations, suicide attacks, mortars, grenades, rockets and raids. Their financing comes from local and foreign jihadists.
Number 6 – 2,000 Al-Qaeda and their various incarnations – Qaeda al-Jihad, Black Guard, 055 Brigade (Arab Legion of AQ), Libyan Islamic Jihad (The late al-Libi’s group)
This is headed by Osama bin Laden and Ayman Zawahiri. In my opinion, we should focus our efforts on Al Qaeda as this is the group provides spiritual and inspirational leadership to all the other insurgent groups.
Al Qaeda’s goals have not changed. They direct its operations to
eventually force the establishment of the new Caliphate in the Middle East, destroy Israel and seize Jerusalem. They have stated they intend to destroy western civilization and the Christian religion.
They are very well established on the Internet and I would argue that the Internet is AQ’s most dangerous weapons due to its global reach. Al Qaeda has killed more Americans than any other terrorist organization. In Afghanistan, they use IEDs and suicide IEDs, kidnappings, executions on video, RPGs, mortars, rockets,
ambushes, raids and direct assaults.
Most of their money comes from Internet donations, Arab donors and jihadists worldwide.
This is the group the United States MUST destroy.
Number 7 – 1,000 HIG Hizb-i-Gullbudin
Hekmatyar Gulbuddin heads this heavily armed militia under the command of Gulbuddin. They operates in Eastern Afghanistan and fights alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
A lot of their money comes from opium protection rackets, the Taliban, AQ and jihadists worldwide.
Number 8 – 200 HIK Hizb-i-Khalis
Mulavi Younas Khalis leads this heavily armed militia also in eastern Afghniastan area; fights alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Their financing come from opium trafficking, Taliban sontributions and jihadists worldwide.
Number 9 – 200 IPT Islamic Party of Uzbekistan, formerly Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)
The IMU is a coalition of Islamic militants from Uzbekistan and other Central Asian states. It is closely affiliated with al-Qaida and, under the leadership of Tohir Yoldashev, has embraced Osama bin Ladin’s anti-US, anti-Western agenda.
The IMU has participated in attacks on US in Afghanistan and plotted attacks on US diplomatic facilities in Central Asia.
Number 10 – 200 IJU Islamic Jihad Union (Faction IPT)
This is the IMU faction, Islamic Jihad Group of Uzbekistan and Islamic Jihad Group. It’s led by Tohir Yuldashev. They split from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU); trains in Taliban and AQ camps in western Pakistan.
Their goal is to overthrow the Afghanistan and Uzbekistan elected governments. They are largely a bandit operation supported by criminal activity and opium.
Number 11 – 200 Turkistan al-Islamiyya
.
This group is led by Abd al-Haqq Turkistani. This is the Uighur jihadist group training and fighting alongside AQ and the Taliban in
Western Pakistan and is also separatist-jihadist group from the Uighur Province in China.
They conduct Joint training and fighting alongside AQ, Haqqani Network and Taliban. Their financing comes from Internet donations.
Number 12 – 200 JeM Jaish-e-Mohammed
Jaish-e-Mujahideen aka Army of Mohammed, Jaish-i-Mohammed, Khudamul Islam, Khuddam-ul-Islam, Kuddam e Islami, Mohammed’s Army, Tehrik ul-Furqaan and JeM.
This is led by Masood Azhar. It is a jihadist group based in Pakistan that is intent on reuniting Kashmir with Pakistan. They have openly has openly declared war against the United States. In Pakistan they are politically aligned with the radical political party Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam’s Fazlur Rehman faction (JUI-F).
Pakistan outlawed JEM in 2002. By 2003, JeM had splintered into Khuddam ul-Islam (KUI), headed by Azhar, and Jamaat ul-Furqan (JUF), led by Abdul Jabbar, who was released from Pakistani custody in August 2004. The group was well-funded, and was said to have tens of
thousands of followers who supported attacks against Indian targets, the secular Pakistani government, and sectarian minorities.
JeM collects funds through donation requests in magazines and pamphlets, and allegedly gets financial support from AQ.
Number 13 – 200 HUM Harakat-ul-Mujahideen a faction of Harakat ul-Jihad-I-Islami-HUJI)
This group is led by Dr. Badr Munir . It is a Kashmiri group that supports the Pakistan claim to the territory and therefore has strong ISI support. They maintain training camps in western Pakistan and have forged alliances with the Taliban and AQ.
They are a signatory to bin Laden’s Fatwah against the West and are also linked to Daniel Pearl’s murder. They are politically aligned with the radical political party Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam’s Fazlur Rehman faction (JUI-F). Jane’s now reports possibly thousands of followers. They are based in based in Muzaffarabad, Rawalpindi, and several other towns in Pakistan. HUM conducts insurgent and terrorist operations primarily in Kashmir, but members have also been found operating in Afghanistan. HUM trains its militants in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Harakat-ul-Mujahideen is clearly funded by Pakistan and jihadists worldwide.
Number 14 – 200 Jalaluddin Haqqani Network
This small core but well organized group is led by Jalaluddin Haqqani and son Sirajuddin Haqqani. Their numbers are integrated into the larger Taliban count. It’s a tribal warlord militia that is pro-Taliban and AQ. They do have a limited stated mission and that is to expell all US/NATO forces from the Haqqani areas of operation. They maintain training camps, sanctuary locations, a madrassa and a mosque in Western Pakistan (Dandi Darpa Khailin North Waziristan).
Jalaluddin Haqqani is one of the most important Taliban military commanders fighting against the Afghan government, and US forces
in Afghanistan. He is seen by some analysts as the main engine in the Taliban movement. He is aligned with Osama bin Laden and
Aymanal-Zawahiri as well as secretly with Pakistan’s spy agency, the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence).
The Pakistani government denies the relationship their spy agency has with Haqqani, however, the evidence clearly shows that the ISI is secretly working with various Taliban leaders to weaken and eventually destroy the US backed government in Kabul.
Their financing comes mostly from opium trafficking, the Taliban, AQ and jihadists worldwide.
Last but not the least, Number 15 – the Iranian Revolutionary Guards/Quds brigades.
This is led by Brigadier General Mohammad Hejazi. Quds Forces view the enemy of my enemy is my friend, which is why they will support Sunni groups in their fight against the US. They are the source for some of the more sophisticated weapons in Afghanistan such as anti-tank weapons and SAMs.
In 14 of the 15 insurgent groups, the common thread is the influence of the Pakistani ISI. Unless we can control the shadow government of Pakistan, 40,000 troops may not make a difference.
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