MOGADISHU, Somalia, Feb. 9 (UPI) -- The shaky Western-backed Transitional Federal Government, barely able to control a few blocks of the capital, appears to be bracing for a three-pronged military offensive against Islamist militants aligned with al-Qaida.
The TFG, which commands a few hundred poorly led troops, has vowed before to strike at the Islamist forces of al-Shebab and nothing happened. But this time, it seems to be serious.
According to diplomatic sources in Mogadishu, the government envisages a push involving some 3,700 Somalis trained in neighboring Kenya, the Ahlu Sunnah Wal-jammah militia and TFG forces supported by some 4,500 troops, mainly from Burundi and Uganda, of the African Union peacekeeping force known as Amisom.
The Kenya-trained force would move northeastward from the southern border, the militia from the west while the forces deployed in Mogadishu on the Indian Ocean seaboard would seek to consolidate control of the area around the war-battered capital.
According to U.S.-based security consultancy Stratfor, there have been reports that "al-Shebab forces have begun to leave certain neighborhood strongholds" in Mogadishu, apparently in anticipation of the offensive.
Al-Shebab has held large sections of Mogadishu for some time, but its main power base is in central and southern Somalia and extends eastward to the coast and south to the Kenyan border, which it largely controls.
Al-Shebab recently forged an alliance with a major clan-based militia known as the Ras Kamboni Brigade, a former rival in the south.
That has extended Al-Shebab's influence, particularly in the southwest where it has been steadily wearing down another rival, the Hizb-ul Islam, in recent months.
The Islamists wrested control of the coastal towns of Kismayu and Baidoa in November.
If the TFG offensive does take place, al-Shebab's main force of some 3,000 would be pinioned between the forces moving out of Kenya and the Ahlu Sunnah Wal-jammah, cutting off the Islamists' link to Mogadishu.
On Sunday a column of Ethiopian troops backing the TFG was reported to have crossed into Somalia from the north in the Balkool region with armored vehicles and linked up with TFG military officials.
The area, which is controlled by the Ahlu Sunnah Wal-jammah, is, as Stratfor notes, "far beyond the scope of the TFG's normal area of operations, which typically is restricted to Mogadishu and its immediate environs."
On Monday there were further signs of mobilization by the pro-TFG forces when media reports said the government was engaged in talks with the Ahlu Sunnah Wal-jammah in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital.
Ethiopia, backed by the United States, is the TFG's main ally in the region. Ethiopian forces invaded in December 2006 to overthrow a short-lived Islamist regime and recapture Mogadishu.
Addis Ababa withdrew that force in early 2009. But Ethiopia, a largely Christian state that is bitterly opposed to having an Islamist regime in Mogadishu, has continued to prop up the TFG headed by President Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed.
Addis Ababa also backs the Sufi-inspired Ahlu Sunnah Wal-jammah and has backed up the militia several times in its local wars with rival clans.
The Ethiopians are reported to have concluded an agreement with its leader, Sheik Mahmoud Hassan Farah, in Addis Ababa Dec. 13 to install an autonomous administration in central Somalia with him at its head.
How this fits in with Addis Ababa's strategy regarding the TFG is not clear but may become so in the days ahead.
The clan and militia alliances are constantly shifting, as they have done amid the chaos and lawlessness that has swept Somalia since it fell apart in 1991 when the dictator Siad Barre was toppled by warlords.
But it seems that much will depend on the coming days, if the TFG offensive actually materializes, on the Ahlu Sunnah Wal-Jammah continuing to support Sheik Ahmed's fragile administration.
The militia, backed by Ethiopian gold, doubtless provided by the United States, has clearly become a pivotal factor in the seesawing conflict swirling across Somalia.
The TFG, which commands a few hundred poorly led troops, has vowed before to strike at the Islamist forces of al-Shebab and nothing happened. But this time, it seems to be serious.
According to diplomatic sources in Mogadishu, the government envisages a push involving some 3,700 Somalis trained in neighboring Kenya, the Ahlu Sunnah Wal-jammah militia and TFG forces supported by some 4,500 troops, mainly from Burundi and Uganda, of the African Union peacekeeping force known as Amisom.
The Kenya-trained force would move northeastward from the southern border, the militia from the west while the forces deployed in Mogadishu on the Indian Ocean seaboard would seek to consolidate control of the area around the war-battered capital.
According to U.S.-based security consultancy Stratfor, there have been reports that "al-Shebab forces have begun to leave certain neighborhood strongholds" in Mogadishu, apparently in anticipation of the offensive.
Al-Shebab has held large sections of Mogadishu for some time, but its main power base is in central and southern Somalia and extends eastward to the coast and south to the Kenyan border, which it largely controls.
Al-Shebab recently forged an alliance with a major clan-based militia known as the Ras Kamboni Brigade, a former rival in the south.
That has extended Al-Shebab's influence, particularly in the southwest where it has been steadily wearing down another rival, the Hizb-ul Islam, in recent months.
The Islamists wrested control of the coastal towns of Kismayu and Baidoa in November.
If the TFG offensive does take place, al-Shebab's main force of some 3,000 would be pinioned between the forces moving out of Kenya and the Ahlu Sunnah Wal-jammah, cutting off the Islamists' link to Mogadishu.
On Sunday a column of Ethiopian troops backing the TFG was reported to have crossed into Somalia from the north in the Balkool region with armored vehicles and linked up with TFG military officials.
The area, which is controlled by the Ahlu Sunnah Wal-jammah, is, as Stratfor notes, "far beyond the scope of the TFG's normal area of operations, which typically is restricted to Mogadishu and its immediate environs."
On Monday there were further signs of mobilization by the pro-TFG forces when media reports said the government was engaged in talks with the Ahlu Sunnah Wal-jammah in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital.
Ethiopia, backed by the United States, is the TFG's main ally in the region. Ethiopian forces invaded in December 2006 to overthrow a short-lived Islamist regime and recapture Mogadishu.
Addis Ababa withdrew that force in early 2009. But Ethiopia, a largely Christian state that is bitterly opposed to having an Islamist regime in Mogadishu, has continued to prop up the TFG headed by President Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed.
Addis Ababa also backs the Sufi-inspired Ahlu Sunnah Wal-jammah and has backed up the militia several times in its local wars with rival clans.
The Ethiopians are reported to have concluded an agreement with its leader, Sheik Mahmoud Hassan Farah, in Addis Ababa Dec. 13 to install an autonomous administration in central Somalia with him at its head.
How this fits in with Addis Ababa's strategy regarding the TFG is not clear but may become so in the days ahead.
The clan and militia alliances are constantly shifting, as they have done amid the chaos and lawlessness that has swept Somalia since it fell apart in 1991 when the dictator Siad Barre was toppled by warlords.
But it seems that much will depend on the coming days, if the TFG offensive actually materializes, on the Ahlu Sunnah Wal-Jammah continuing to support Sheik Ahmed's fragile administration.
The militia, backed by Ethiopian gold, doubtless provided by the United States, has clearly become a pivotal factor in the seesawing conflict swirling across Somalia.
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