AT FIRST glance Somalia’s foreign-backed government seems to be
doing well. In the past two years it has benefited from the recovery of
the country’s main cities by African Union peacekeepers after two
decades of clan warfare and intermittent Islamist rule. And on June 29th
the government pulled off something of a coup by locking up the
grandfather of militant Islamism in Somalia, Sheikh Hassan Dahir, better
known as Aweys. The red-bearded 78-year-old may be the victim of
infighting in the Shabab, an al-Qaeda-linked movement that is steadily
losing power but can still cause mayhem with suicide-bombings here and
there.
But appearances may mislead. President Hassan Sheikh
Mohamud, appointed last year to much acclaim, is accused of employing
warlords to assert his authority over the fragmented country. A report
due to be submitted to the UN Security Council by independent experts
says the government used rival militia leaders to gain control of
Kismayo, the second city. The report alleges that Mr Mohamud, who gets a
lot of cash from Western governments, has been “co-opting clan
warlords”, some of them linked to the Shabab.
In this section
The
region around the capital, Mogadishu, remains more or less in
government hands. But southern Somalia is engulfed in a power struggle.
Five rival militia leaders proclaim themselves “president of Jubaland”, a
region that includes Kismayo. At least 40 people were killed last month
when clashes broke out between them. The most powerful is Sheikh Ahmed
Madobe, whose Ras Kamboni brigade helped the Kenyan army to drive the
Shabab out of Kismayo last year. With Kenya’s implicit backing, he has
refused to let representatives from the federal government enter
Kismayo. His main rival is Barre Hiraale, another warlord who has
sometimes sided with the Shabab.
The struggle pits against each
other two of Somalia’s most powerful clans, the Darod of Sheikh Madobe
and the Hawiye of President Mohamud. Conflict between the “superclans”,
as well as internecine battles among myriad subclans, has fuelled
Somalia’s civil war for two decades.
In this context, the
humiliating arrest of Sheikh Aweys may turn out to be counterproductive.
He was promised talks with government officials but instead was
arrested and roughed up by soldiers. This could split the Hawiye clan,
of which the president and the arrested Islamist are both members.
To
make matters even worse, the Shabab appear less divided than was
thought. Following recent infighting, one aspiring leader was killed and
Sheikh Aweys was arrested, leaving sole command to Ahmed Abdi Godane,
who is regarded as being keenest within the Shabab on its alliance with
al-Qaeda. On June 19th Shabab suicide-bombers breached the front gates
of the UN compound in Mogadishu; gunmen barged in and killed at least
nine people. Nick Kay, a Briton recently appointed as the UN’s special
envoy to Somalia, gamely insisted there would be no retreat in the face
of the assault.
Source:The Economist
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