The Anti- Federalism – at it Again Blocking Jubaland’s Valves and Veins.

By Ahmed Hirsi

Introduction

Despite a peace treaty facilitated by Intergovernmental Authority on Development - IGAD regarding the question of Jubaland being signed in Addis- Ababa Ethiopia between “Federal” Somali Government and Juba Administration yet Jubaland question still grabs headlines.

In order for us to absorb the Jubaland standoff we will need to answer and analyse the followings:

What role does the experience of the Civil War in Somalia play in Jubaland impasse?

What is the relationship between the alleged Federalism phobia based on the false assumption that some clans will conquer Somalia if federalism is adopted and the fact that certain clans must be prevented by all means possible from having any political say and influence?

This short article is intended at pointing out that the conflict in the Deep South Somalia has deadlocked even more viciously since the Addis-Ababa Agreement was signed.

According to most analysts and from rigorous power analysis the Somali Federal Government – SFG is alienated more than it was before and Kenya is getting more edgy with the Mogadishu regime than it was before. That spells a greater probability of more armed conflict in Jubaland.

The central argument of this article is that Somalia is for Somalis the sooner we recognise and acknowledge this fact the better ­­­– all clans in Somalia should have a say on how the country should be run.

It appears to me that Federalism is the only remedy and magic potion and universal remedy that is capable of curing suspicion amongst Somali clans after the 22 years of mayhem, destruction and mistrust.

There is no other viable system that can deliver the goodies in country riddled by clanocracy, nepotism, terrorism, and political piracy, higher rates of illiteracy and abject poverty. Furthernore, no other shortcuts or cause of action remain open for Somalis and the International Community other than Federalism.

In a nutshell federalism is the only viable option, and means of transport that is suitable to craft and transport us into Somalia that is at peace with itself and at peace with its neighbours.

Blocking Jubaland Valves and Veins

For those of you, who closely follow and grasp the political development of Somalia and particularly in Jubaland, might have observed a lot of political maneuvers such as formation of alliances between different groups and stakeholders coupled with money induced defections and convention of various fake meetings in Mogadishu.

For instance it is now rumoured that Aw-Libaax/ McLion to have moved back to Team Mogadishu which is made up of all former fake Jubaland presidents except Barre Hiiraale who is still holed up at Goobweyn.

Paradoxically these businesses like defections due to large amounts of cash involved in bribing individuals is reminiscent of football clubs buying players before the transfer window closure.

Aw-Libaax is former ally of President of Jubaland Seyyid Ahmed Islam Madobe.

Rumour has it that a high level delegation from Team Mogadishu were in Kismayo few days ago in an attempt to bring back to Kismayo forces loyal to Barre Hiirale based outside  Kismayo.

According to various Somali media outlets this incident infuriated Seyyid Ahmed Islam Madobe the President of Jubaland so much that he had to say the following:

  “Dadkii Doonta Kismayo ku Keeney Barre Hiiraale Haka soo Dooneen”

“It is the responsibility of those who in the first place smuggled Barre Hiiraale by boat into Kismayo to salvage him” -  suggesting that Team Mogadishu has to clean up its mess .

Apart from that the Seyyid went further and offered amnesty to all armed men who were willing to denounce acts of terrorism and anyone who is willing to solve any political differences through dialogue and peaceful means.

As indicated in a recent article written by  Malkhadir Muhumed an Associated Press- AP journalist and writer:

“Although Mogadishu has finally agreed to recognise and work with the pro-Kenya Jubba administration in the southern coastal city of Kismayu, many see this as a ruse to buy time before trying to sabotage an administration it once vehemently opposed the creation of”

In the same way nearly everyone in Jubaland will tell you that Team Mogadishu is tiresomely applying every trick in the book to block the valves of Jubaland be it armed incursions, terrorism, bribery and defection, propaganda, and political manoeuvres at home and abroad.

For instance more recently the Somali Prime Minister announced the convention of what he termed as a “reconciliation conference in Mogadishu” that was supposed to take place on 5^th of October 2013, which was later adjourned into 21 of October 2013.

This move was promptly discarded by Jubaland leadership that clearly stated that they will not be attending another duplicate meeting in Mogadishu.

Moreover the Jubaland administration view this move as a tactical move, time wasting scheme and contravention to the Addis Agreement, simply because the first leg of meeting between Jubaland and Team Mogadishu has already taken place.

This is similar to a fascinating quote regarding self induced failures that I came across while surfing on the web.

“ If you try to fail, and you succeed at failing. So in a way you have achieved success through failure. The other context is that you try to fail, and you fail to do so meaning you have succeeded. However, on overall, you have achieved failure through success” 

On one hand the “Federal” Somali Government has tried very hard to fail in resolving the Jubaland statemate and on the other hand it has succeeded in appeasing its supporters who oppose both the idea of Federalism and the formation of Jubaland which in turn could be summed as a failure through success. I hope this makes sense to you.

In addition to that if my memory serves me right the Speaker of the parliament has also initiated and attended a clan meeting in Baydhabo to set up six-region state in South-Western Somalia which technically speaking includes the two Jubbas and Gedo, the already established regional administration of Jubbaland. This is another prime example of government manufactured failure.

All these unwise moves point towards the unwillingness of Team Mogadishu to respect and honour the Addis Agreement. According to Ghelle an analyst and expert on the Horn

“The Speaker of Somali parliament attended the Baydhabo meeting with full approval from President Hassan”.

Exposing paradoxes

Vast amount of resources are deployed in the "Jubaland State", be it in terms of human lives, cash and time by locals, and the International Community yet the Jubba is more dangerous and political consensus is not even a light that can be glimpsed at the end of the tunnel.

In reality there is no shortage of critics who focus their wit and bite against Team Mogadishu, Generals and Clan chiefs, Clan Research Institutes, and Spokesmen.

 But the criticism is often too narrow.

Large amounts of money has been flowing to researchers who want to study  Somalia , but virtually no one has ever turned the magnifying glass the other way  round for a scientific analysis of the clan alliances, politicians and institutions that analyse Somalia not to mention the legacy of 22 years of civil war.

While some researchers and politicians few months ago claimed that Jubaland peace deal was a success story, the message is now quite the opposite.

The most revealing paradox is that never have so many talked and written so much about something that they have so little or no knowledge about, while Somali analysts can with relative ease analyse and interpret each and every manoeuvre made by the Somali government while a foreign analyst wouldn’t be able to fully comprehend the ingenuity and how manipulative Somalis could be in distorting facts for the sake of clanocracy.

The Jubaland question and Federalism system in general are deeply embedded into the Somali clan structure, competitions for meagre resources and power.

So far Somalis haven’t found a system that can defeat clanocracy until then Federalism is the only option open for us. The era of strong autocratic government in Somalia is over, the sooner we admit this fact the better. The legacy of the 1991 civil war which damaged the trust between Somali clans to irreparable levels is still with us.

To make matters worse, most Somalis are still in denial about the atrocities committed before and during the Somali civil war. The deep wounds caused by the Somali civil war can be forgiven but not forgotten.  Sadly, whenever the word reconciliation is mentioned some Somalis tend to jokingly say:

“Hala Heshiiyo Maba Xuma ee Yaa la Heeshiisiinayaa”  which could be translated as follows:

 “There is nothing wrong with reconciliation, but who needs reconciliation”

Conclusion

Denying the undeniable won’t solve our problems. All Somalis must be involved in the formation of prosperous Somalia based on respect for human rights where the rule of law that supersedes clanocracy is in place.

We will also need to mobilise all Somalis across all clans, since there are no political parties in existence for the engagement of serious reconciliation process, envisioning the future and nation building.

Finally, we must also confront the harsh realities inherited from the past if meaningful reconciliation has to be achieved.

Gathering few old men and woman at various hotels whom don’t even represent their clans by carrying out sham hand raising exercises that are called reconciliation meetings wouldn’t solve our problems. Somalia requires authentic reconciliation and Federalism is the only way forward.

“Dagaalkii Sokeeyaha dibindaabyadiisiyo Weli Diiftiisi  Mey Harin”  ( Qaylo Dhaan).

Ahmed.hirsi@yahoo.com