Ahlu Sunna Warlords and TFG talks in Addis Ababa: - another deadly contract from the Tigreyan Regime.

 

Ahlu Sunna Warlords and TFG talks in Addis Ababa: -   another deadly contract from the Tigreyan Regime.

The author is a political analyst based in London

The central region of Somalia is the most contested region in the whole of what is left of the once mighty Somalia – Please watch this Who is Somali? to give your mind enough energy to digest the heart breaking read that is soon to come. Al - Shabab was cleared from Dusamareeb, the birth place of their founder ,Sheikh Ayrow, on 29 January last year after a heavy fighting that left relatively heavy casualties on both sides -  10 killed and 15 injured in the three hour fight.

The brief fall of Dusemareeb, last month, to the Harkatu Al Shabab Mujahidiin (H.S.M) commando units has put the region at the fore front of the media. The media portrays the region as if it is one unit that is under one administration but the reality on the ground is some what shaky at best and disaster waiting to happen at worst. This recent fight registers as the fourth time that the two groups fought over the Strategic town of Dusamareeb but unlike the preceding ones, this one gives the impression as if it is a precursor for a lengthy and decisive war in which Ethiopian forces will most probably be tested.

There are four regional administrations in the region whose boarders overlap at every corner which is a recipe for mayhem especially at a time the clouds of war are gathering over the constituency. The local population who are mainly from Habar Gidir and Marehan tribes have no common agenda and creed to rally around except the lukewarm dislike of Al Shabab’s brand of Islam. But instead each sub clan is running its own business independently from the others to safe guard their territory in the likely event that its neighbour (other Habar Gidir clans or Marehans) trespasses in to their territory which is inline with the tradition of the Somali clan system.

The Dichotomy of the Central region: - What is cooking in the pot?

The Ahlusuna Wal Jama portrays itself as the sole authority of the region and to that end they elected three councils delegated to run the affairs of the region. The Galmudug (Sa’ad clan) state   that lay claim on the same region elected Mr. Moalin to the presidential office after long political disagreements that crippled the administration of the state. The less known Himan & Heeb (Suleiman clan) state headed by Mr. Mohamed Ali Tiicow also lays claim to the same region and recently Al shabab nominated an administration headed by Sheikh Kaba Kutugade for the same county.

Galmudug went under the control of Ahlu – Sunna’s administration on 30/06/09 under Amiir Sheikh Ahmed Sh Yusuf Juma’ale(Golden teeth Shiekh)  and both houses of the state were dissolved due to their poor political  performance. Barahley, a poor periphery district of southern Galkayo that is a home for the returnees from Mogadishu, Is the seat of Galmudug State; the same district calls itself Galmudug state whose boundary reaches near Hiiraan region. Two presidents who hail from same sub clan of “Sa’ad” were fighting over it since August last year. Sh. Sharif (TFG President) and General Abdi Qaybdiid (TFG Minister) succeeded in mediating between the two by convincing Mr. Ahmed to resign. The Sharif approved the administration with caution by saying “local states shouldn’t be used to source new wars”.  This is seen as a calculated move from Gen. Abdi Qaydid who was siding previously with one of the contenders, to pre-empt Ahlu – sunna’s newly elected administrations imminent take over of Barahley District. Galmudug Administration is in the hands of Ahlu – Sunna forces and I wonder how they will relinquish a territory which they claim as theirs to a sub clan of Habr Gidir(Sa’ad)in peace as this amounts from Ahlu – Sunnas perspective to a political suicide.

The Himan and Heeb State of the Suleiman clan is founded (12 /06/08) by members of the Diaspora in Shariqa (U.A.E) and was seen as a natural response to the mushrooming of clan based regional states in their neighbourhood. This state is less known because there are no political heavy weights from Suleiman clan that are involved in its running in any capacity. The state claims to control the area that falls between Addado to Hobyo and down to Harar Dheere which puts in collision course with Galmudug State,  Ahlu – Sunna nominal administration and to some extend Al Shabab who also claim the same area. I wonder how   Ahlu Sunna will cede the region to Suleiman clan – another booby trap for Ahlu Sunna to negotiate.

An interview given today (16 Feb. 10) by the Governor of Dhusa Mareeb (the nerve centre of Ahlu Sunna , the birth place of Sheikh Ayro the founder of Alshabab , Sheikh Aweys the founder of Hisbi Islam and also General Gallaal)Mr. Mohamed Nur  Antoobe puts his primary concern as the return of the civilians that fled from his town in the wake of the recent running battles between Ahlu – Sunna and Alshabab. He emphasised that he needs more then any thing an international humanitarian aid for the IDPs who he pointed out are suffering under harsh and unforgiving conditions – lack of water,  diseases and lack of food. The governor showed that the interest of the region is not served by making it a battle ground between Ahlu – Sunna and Al – Shabab. When asked why the traditional elders didn’t intervene this issue? the governor bluntly said” the elders them selves are divided along Ahlu Sunna and Alshabab lines.” In short the governor painted a picture in which foreign powers are holding the people of the region in hostage - another Booby trap waiting for Ahlu Sunna to defuse. Please sit back and listen to the interview of Dhuusomareeb Governor and find out how these raving wars are punishing the civilians.

Ahlu Sunna  W/L and TFG talks :- The torching of the central region

 The talks in progress in Addis is between two groups who have neither constituencies of their own nor moral conscience of any sort. The TFG and Ahlu Sunna both work for the same master, Ethiopia, and what is going on in Addis can’t be called talks but rightly type training on a new instruction. The TFG and Ahlu Suna are in no position to bargain because both owe their survival to Ethiopia without which none can endure more then several days.

Today is the fourth day and the last day of the first round of the  so called talks and the following  points are so far what I learned they had agreed to:-

• The immediate unification of their respective forces  
• The unified forces shall jointly fight against Al Shabab
• The unification of the forces must start in Hiiraan were both forces are stationed
• To continue fighting until all the regions of the country comes under the control of the TFG
• That General  Galaal & some of the current militia officers shall jointly make the new high command of Ahlu Sunna(tribal Militias)

The second round is said to be on power sharing scheme which most of the followers of this exercise fail to understand as to how they can work around the straight jacket of the 4.5 formula but the how remains to be seen. Its parliament and cabinet posts are already shared out but if Ahlu Sunna demands one of the highest offices of the TFG then that will signal the rise of yet another new TFG – the 17^th one perhaps – I may comment on the development of this decisive phase on my forth coming article.

The leaders of Ahlu Sunna, who are in the country, already denied the knowledge of the existence of such talks between them and the TFG. Sheikh Mohamed Yusuf Hefow , the chairman of the administration of the central regions, held press conference in Guriceel District(14/02/10) and said "all of the members of the  three committees of Ahlu Sunna are present in the country and as far as we know, none travelled to Addis". He vehemently dismissed as a lie with regard to the news of Addis talks circulated by the media. There is visible divide between the militarist Ethiopian pawns and the tradition elders of the land who are the council members.

The few who are in Addis are said to be mainly the warlords but the elders of Ahlu Sunna ,who are the members of the three councils, are the traditional tribal elders who have a non-political agenda other then to lead their people to a greener pastures. They are non-violent and are not party to the Tigrayan genocidal conspiracy. They are the representatives of the same people whom two years back PM. Male Zenawi branded as being the vanguards of Somali nationalism that refused to succumb to the might of his occupation army.

Male Zenawi’s sudden change of heart means nothing other then taking revenge on them this time by supplying bullets to kill each other and to make them fight for his dirty war – annihilation of the Somali race. 

Conclusion: He who has nothing to lose can try any thing

In light of the states with in states in the region with their local agendas, the fragility of the economy of the central region and the people in the IDP camps; the war cry for a new prolonged war only comes from a person without heart and mind. The central region shouldn’t be made a new theatre of unnecessary and un- winnable war to please the Tigrayan regime that ate its own people.

The TFG failed in every aspect to an extend that the President, the cabinet and the parliament are now building their own Mosque,400 worshipers capacity, inside the premises of the Villa. This is a clear indication that his government has no hope of venturing outside the Villa and we all remember that his government’s anniversary was showered with hail of rockets. I am wondering if the entire mosque save the minaret is underground – there is no place the TFG can trust. See the casualties Sheikh Sharif inflicts on Mogadishu civilians on daily bases with out remorse Civilians are terrorists; did the TFG president utter a word? This is not enough for his unquenchable appetite for blood and so it is rational for this desperate TFG president to look for more blood in the central region as long as he is safely sleeping inside the notorious AMISOM tanks.

In conclusion, I believe the elders of the region can diffuse the tension by opening an independent channel of communication with Al Shabab to address the political impasses with the view of averting the impending lengthy war that is serving only the interest of the Tigreyan regime in Addis. True Ahlu Sunna leaders, not the warlords, after diffusing the tension should strive to initiate a robust and functioning administration that covers the whole region to address the developmental needs of the stake holders.   

Mr. abdikarim Haji Abdi Buh  Wardheernews contributer

Email: Abdikarimbuh@yahoo.com