Thursday 26 August 2010

Somalia: Frozen Warfare in Mogadishu [Intelligence Brief #2]




By: Dr. Michael A. Weinstein

An independent source on the ground in Mogadishu confirms and expands on the intelligence on the balance of power in the city provided by the source for this writer’s “Intelligence Brief” posted on Garoweonline on August 5. Based on observations made outside the enclave in Mogadishu controlled by Somalia’s internationally-recognized Transitional Federal Government (T.F.G.), which is protected by an African Union peacekeeping mission (AMISOM), the source concludes that the revolutionary Islamist movement Harakat al-Shabaab Mujahideen (H.S.M.), which seeks to displace the T.F.G. and AMISOM, remains dominant, whereas its adversaries remain militarily ineffective.

Specifically the source reports that AMISOM forces frequently fire on the T.F.G. soldiers who accompany them and have a “complete unwillingness” to dismount from their armored personnel carriers, insuring their “fundamental failure” at a military level. The source adds that militias controlled by the faction of the Sufi Islamist movement Ahlu Sunna wal-Jama’a (A.S.W.J.) that is partially aligned with the T.F.G. against H.S.M. have only between 250 and 300 fighters, and three battlewagons on the ground. Read More

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