What odds a Birr devaluation in the next month?

Jan 14, 2011 14:39 EST

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In November, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi told Reuters a sharp devaluation of the birr at the start of September was a “one-off affair”.
The currency’s recent history suggests otherwise.
    Since the middle of 2008, the currency of Africa’s second-most populous nation has tended to trade broadly flat against the dollar for 5-6 months, before devaluing sharply.
    The cycle has held true four times in the last two years, over which time the unit has lost more than 40 percent of its value. It now stands at around 16.6 to the dollar, and the clock is ticking — it’s now 4-1/2 months since the birr last fell out of bed.