In January 2011 the Somali civil war will be exactly twenty years old. Though hopes are dim, for there are no silver linings, and people – analysts and all – will be cynical as usual, we cannot dismiss altogether the possibility of a slim chance in this year for things to turn dramatically around and surprise us with a cessation of hostilities. The Almighty works in mysterious ways and He alone can change hearts and minds within the blink of an eye. That is something immeasurably far above the capacity of mortal human beings to do or even attempt. Those who read the Qur’an know full well that Prophet Muhammad (SAW) was told: “ had you spent all that is in the earth, you could not have united their hearts, but Allah united them; surely, He is Mighty, Wise.” (Surah No.8,Verse 63).
However, before the change of hearts and minds, which is an essential prerequisite for genuine reconciliation, it may well be possible for one or the other of the currently incompetent combatants (the combined forces of the TFG and AMISOM on the one hand and the united forces of the two Islamist factions - Shabaab and Hizbul-Islam - on the other) to end the stalemate in Mogadishu in the course of the year and emerge victorious. However, a TFG/AMISOM victory in Mogadishu is not likely to change the situation much in the immediate future because much of the surrounding areas and all the contiguous regions are in the hands of the Islamists, and these latter can always retreat, regroup and relaunch their attacks on the capital. If they fail to retake the capital they will at least resort to a war of attrition and prevent TFG/AMISOM from expanding into the hinterland; consequently, TFG/AMISOM will hardly have a day’s rest. If, conversely, the Islamists manage to overrun the combined forces of TFG and AMISOM (which is possible but not probable) it will be much easier for them to unite the country under their rule.Read More
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