Tuesday, 15 March 2011

Kingdom, Greeting Gulf Soldiers, Is Seen as New Front on Sunni-Shiite Divide

BEIRUT—The tiny Island of Bahrain could become a battleground for regional influence between two historical rivals—with Saudi Arabia backing Bahrain's Sunni monarchy, and Iran supporting the Shiite opposition.
A coalition of about 2,000 soldiers deployed by Saudi Arabia and Persian Gulf states, part of the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council, rolled into Bahrain's capital Monday to help restore order and save a government challenged by an opposition seeking an end to the monarchy. It was the first time Gulf countries deployed troops to an Arab nation to settle an internal dispute.
In 1991 and 2003, Arab soldiers were dispatched to Kuwait amid threats from Saddam Hussein.
"The [Gulf states'] strategy in Bahrain has gone from defensive to offensive for both protecting the monarchy and limiting Iran's influence," said Jihad Zein, a political analyst and editor of An Nahar newspaper in Lebanon.
Iran's foreign ministry spokesman, Ramin Mehmanparast, told a news conference Tuesday that the presence of foreign forces in Bahrain was "unacceptable and would further complicate things."
Iranian parliamentarians blamed the U.S. for siding with autocratic rulers. U.S. Secretary of Defense Bill Gates recently visited Bahrain and warned of Iran's influence with the opposition. "The U.S. bears the responsibility of any violence and bloodshed in Bahrain," parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani said Tuesday.
Even as Tehran has sought to take credit for inspiring what it calls an "Islamic awakening" in the Arab world, many of the region's pro-democracy leaders have sought to distance themselves from Iran. But Sunni rulers have been wary that Iran could benefit. Saudi Arabia has particularly been concerned because of its own restive Shiites population concentrated near the eastern oil rigs close to Bahrain's borders.
Bahrain, like Lebanon and Iraq, has long been seen by Iran as vital to its strategy of winning loyalties of Arab Shiites, who have long economic and cultural ties to Iran. Iran has expanded its influence in Iraq and Lebanon in part through sophisticated networks of clerics, charities and social programs that now also include political parties and proxy militants like Hezbollah and Moqtada al-Sadr's movement.
Analysts say Iran could attempt to do the same in Bahrain if the opposition gains the upper hand. They cite the potential for "Lebanonization," a Bahrain torn apart by sects and a battlefield for regional and outside powers.
"As much as they have supported Hezbollah, they will do the same thing in Bahrain. They are beating the drumstick of sectarianism," said Anwar Abdul Rahman, editor in chief of Akbar Khaleej newspaper, pro-government newspaper in Bahrain.
On Monday in Saudi Arabia, which has seen its own small protests, King Abdullah told a cabinet meeting he rejected what he called foreign instigations of street protests and said Saudi Arabia enjoys a strong relation with other countries based on "mutual respect and non-interference in internal affairs."
"Saudi Arabia rejects any form of interference in its internal affairs, affecting the interests of the nation and its people as well as its systems and laws that are based on the Qur'an and Sunnah," the king said.
There is no evidence that Iran is arming or funding the opposition in Bahrain, and the extent of any ties is unclear. The opposition had denounced such allegations, saying it seeks better representation for the country's Shiite majority and a more open society.
However, Iran's sympathies are apparent. The Iranian government's Arabic satellite news channel, Al Allam, has broadcast saturation coverage of the Bahrain uprising in the past 48 hours, featuring opposition leaders on screen. Kayan newspaper, a mouthpiece of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, wrote on its front page Tuesday that Bahrain's government was "corrupt and illegitimate, with a Sunni minority sitting on Bahrain's resources for 200 years and oppressing Shiite majority."
Clerics are also playing a key role in mobilizing the masses in Bahrain, according to both opposition and government sources. These people say that overwhelmingly, these Shiite clerics are trained in the seminaries of Qum and maintain close ties to Iran and frequently travel there, raising suspicion that they are carrying Iran's message back to Bahrain.
Concerns are mounting that if the imported troops open fire on Bahraini protestors and violence erupts, it could radicalize the Shiite and bring them closer to Iran and Hezbollah.
Jasim Husain, a Shiite member of parliament in Bahrain and member of the Al Wafa political party, conceded Tehran had intense interest in Bahrain's affairs but said the opposition had no ties to Iran.
"It's a geopolitical matter for them. They feel this huge rivalry with Saudi and the U.S.," Mr. Husain said by telephone from Bahrain.
Write to Farnaz Fassihi at farnaz.fassihi@wsj.com

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