Somalia’s future:
IGAD’s captivity or donors’ rescue
There
is Somali adage that says, “Old man knows what causes his death.” When
President Hassan Sh. Mohamud of Somalia started his speech at the second London
Conference on Somalia (LCS II) on Maya 7, 2013, with the metaphor of young
sapling, which needs a strong stake, water, feed, and protection from animals
that try to eat its soft bark and kill it, he should have in mind what causes
the death of Somalia- the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD)’s
captivity or strangulation. He rightly pleaded for an international donors’
rescue. Somalia needs, in addition of aid and investment, protection from
neighbors determined to knock it over. President Hassan stated his vision for a
federal Somalia with resurgent economy at peace with itself and with its
neighbors, poses no threat to the world; a Somalia with values of kindness and
respect for human rights.
As
of today May 15, 2013, the Somali territory from Kismaio city to the Kenyan border
is politically and administratively cut off from Somalia and is under the full
occupation of the Kenyan Government (KG) in contravention of the international
law, the UN Security Resolutions S/Res/2093 (2013) and S/Res/2102 (2013). The
Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF) stationed in the area became occupying foreign
forces and KG’s ultimate goal is to control if not to annex three border
regions of Somalia-Gedo, Lower and Middle Jubba- for geostrategic objectives by
creating what it called an Autonomous Jubbaland (Azania) State. English language
is one of the official languages in that area.
Originally,
Jubbaland area comprised Bay, Bakol, Gedo, Lower Jubba and Middle Jubba
regions. The name is derived from the Jubba River that crosses parts of these
regions. The territory is populated by diverse communities. The new Jubbaland
excludes Bay and Bakol regions.
The
Jubbaland (Azania) showdown between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and
the Kenya Government, supported by Ethiopia, China, French, Norway and Italian
Multinational Oil Companies, traces back to the rejection of the Memorandum of
Understanding (MoU) on fabricated maritime border dispute by the Transitional
Federal Parliament of Somalia in August 2009. Immediately afterwards, Kenya Government
undertook the Jubbaland (Azania) State Initiative in cahoots with former
defense Minister of the TFG Professor Mohamed Abdi Gandhi. The outcome of this historic
showdown is decisive for Somalia’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and
political independence.
The
Jubbaland initiative has four aims. First it facilitates the Kenyan control if
not annexation of three border regions of Somalia for geostrategic interests.
Second, it caters to the strategic interests of the foreign countries and the multinational
corporations involved. It bolsters the short term greedy ambition of
self-styled Somali predatory leaders under the emotional hype of clan land
ownership. It helps Ethiopia which throttles the emergence of a Somali State
that responds first and foremost to the needs and aspirations of the Somali
population.
On
the announcement of the creation of Jubbaland (Azania) State on March 30, 2011
recognized by KG as an autonomous state in addition to dozen others, the Star
Tribune of Minneapolis-ST Paul Minnesota of April 3, 2011 reported that the Somali
Information Minister Abdulkareem Jama said the new states are a bad idea. "Taking
that path is a disaster," he said. "The idea that every region and
every group of people has to form their own government without the consultation
of the national government will only create more differences among communities
and encourage Somalis not to come together." The Bloomberg BusinessWeek magazine reported on
April 04, 2011 that “the so-called Jubbaland Initiative seeks to partition the
regions of Gedo, Lower Juba and Middle Juba and their 1.3 million people from
Somalia.”
The
Jubbaland crisis is protracted to sink the UK led international efforts for
rebuilding the sovereign State of Somalia within its territorial borders.
Ethiopia and Kenya are spoilers determined to frustrate all attempts of the Federal
Government to lead Somalia. Somalia’s future depends on which one of IGAD’s
captivity or donors’ rescue partnership prevails.
A
flurry of activities intended to make the Federal Government contested and
irrelevant took place before, during and after the London Conference (LCS II). On
April 27, due to pressure from Ethiopia PM, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud travelled
to Mombasa, Kenya to meet with President Uhuru Kenyatta for a second time in
the less than three weeks.
The
Joint Statement of Understanding issued at the conclusion of President Hassan’s
visit outlined four principles that re-affirmed the IGAD’s sequester of Somalia
and that constrained the sovereign exercise of authority of the Federal Government
of Somalia (FGS). The Joint Statement did not offer Kenya’s unequivocal support
of FGS position on establishing Jubbaland Administration. The Joint Statement created
diversionary priorities like the issue of the return of refugees instead of
accelerating the prosecution of war against Al Shabab for final defeat and supporting
FGS to take full control of the security of at least the south central Somalia.
On
May 3, 2013, in his speech at IGAD Summit, President Uhuru Kenyatta expressed
undue exasperation about the lifting of arms embargo of the TFG, resurrected
the old tenet of the centrality of IGAD in the internal affairs of Somalia. He
went further stating that IGAD (Kenya and Ethiopia) remains the singular
guarantor of peace and stability in the Horn of Africa. Finally, President
Uhuru laid down his principles and priorities for the Somali security force
reform. As member of AMISOM forces contributing countries, KG overreaches its
role and undermines the sovereign supreme authority of the FGS.
While
the London Conference was underway, a Kenyan delegation led by official of the Intelligence
Service went Kismaio and held talks with local leaders to demonstrate support
for the continuation of the Jubbaland controversy. These endless gambits
show the determination of Kenya Government to force the Somali Government to
accept the Jubbaland initiative against its national interest.
The
Federal Government of Somalia is fragile, politically incapable to engage and
sustain never ending maneuverings, permanent interference and subversions. It
has declared its priorities to unify a deeply fragmented society and rebuild
functional national and local institutions able to deliver the basic functions
of State in cooperation with international donor community.
On
May 12, 2013, a plane carrying Somali citizens was turned back in the air by
the KDF controlling Kismaio. This blatant transgression of Kenya Government
forces under AMISOM infringes the legitimacy of the Federal Government. Somali elders,
elites and leaders from Jubbaland requested the FGS to break its silence and
protest against the offending actions of the Kenyan forces.
On
May 3, 2013, the 21st Extraordinary Summit of Heads of State and Government
of IGAD issued a Communiqué that overruled the stabilization plan of the FGS
and prescribed
five intrusive policy principles to weaken FGS’s leadership, supreme authority
and to encourage the continuation of internal tensions. Those five principles
include IGAD centrality (interposition) role over Somalia’s internal affairs,
fighting Al Shabab as primary focus, all inclusive consultative process with
the people of Somalia and respect of the Provisional Constitution. The Somali
government was directed to revise its stabilization plan in accordance with the
manipulative five principles. IGAD appealed to the international community to
base its support to Somalia on those five interfering principles.
IGAD
decided to send a humiliation mission
of the Federal Government to Kismaio. The Somali government will only be a member
of the delegation. As IGAD wishes, this will open a Pandora box that will
intensify the internal political fragmentation and conflict which will kill the
international commitment to the statebuilding mission in Somalia. IGAD
antagonizes the statebuilding mission in Somalia.
Three
days before the successful LCS II, the PM of Ethiopia Hailemariam held talks
with the President of Somaliland Ahmed Mohamud Silaanyo in Addis Ababa for the expansion
of the cooperation in security, trade, education, capacity building and port
services between parties. President Silaanyo welcomed the new robust relations
with Ethiopia. There was no pitch or word of support for Somali unity for
inclusion and statebuilding.
More
amazingly, the Speech of PM Hailamariam of Ethiopia delivered at the LCS II
reiterated the long standing phrase of protecting the primacy of IGAD over the
political process of Somalia. Another ominous phrase was the insistence on
stopping the proliferation of initiatives by non IGAD international actors. It
seems that the Ethiopian leader is oblivious to the fundamental shift of the
international approach towards Somalia. Ethiopia and Kenya should fall in line
with the international community.
The
people of Jubbaland are citizens of Somalia and have the right to pursue their
legitimate interests within the framework of national unity under the Provisional
Constitution and through their national representatives in the federal
government and through their traditional leaders, civil society, intellectuals,
religious, and business community leaders.
The Kenya Government’s behavior is against Somalia’s harmony, political freedom
and right for self-governance.
President
Hassan Sh. Mohamud has alerted the participants of LCS II the danger of the
imminent destruction and death that Somalia faces. He reminded them that the
first period of growth is always the most hazardous when the most support and
protection is needed. IGAD’s (Kenya and Ethiopia) fresh offensive for continual
captivity and strangulation of Somalia must be confronted, stopped, and
publicly repudiated before it is too late.
Mr.
Mohamud M Uluso
mohamuduluso@gmail.com
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