ANALYSIS-No quick fix for Yemen, powers commit to long haul

Wed Jan 27, 2010 4:11pm GMT


LONDON, Jan 27 (Reuters) - International talks to stop Yemen from joining the club of failed states and becoming the regional command for al Qaeda mark the start of a broader and more comprehensive strategy to fight militancy by major powers.

The London talks galvanised global support for Yemen and its government recognised the urgent need for economic and political reforms to help fight al Qaeda militancy which could threaten regional stability, according to a draft conference statement.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown called the meeting after a Yemen-based al Qaeda affiliate said it was behind a failed Dec. 25 bid to blow up a U.S.-bound plane with 300 people aboard.





HAVE THE TALKS ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO ACHIEVE A YEMEN SOLUTION?

* The botched Christmas bomb attack was a wake-up call to the United States, its Western and Sunni Arab allies that Yemen's lawlessness has reached an alarming level that could no longer be ignored in the oil-producing region.

* It drove home how al Qaeda could threaten Western interests from Yemen, compounding security challenges already posed by lawless Somalia just across the Gulf of Aden.

"This is a step in the right direction but a global solution and broader approach will have to follow. It is a very complicated situation," London-based Yemen expert Khairallah Khairallah said of the strategy for Yemen.

"But it is the first time that all these countries are really concerned about Yemen, that it could turn into another Afghanistan or Somalia," he said, adding:

"They cannot face a state failure that can lead to worsening instability in the region and beyond."



WHAT DIFFERENTIATES THIS NEW APPROACH TO RADICALISM?

* The meeting underlined a broader approach to tackling radicalisation in Yemen by targeting reforms, infrastructure, corruption, building institutions and most importantly addressing poverty, a breeding ground for militancy.

"The meeting is only a foundation and a starting point for all the major powers to work together but it is quite an important step really," London-based Yemen expert Henry Thompson told Reuters.

"This meeting has shown a greater level of international involvement, a much greater level of engagement from Yemen's immediate neighbours on how to provide aid and how to foresee the implementation of this aid," Thompson said.



WHAT IS THE TIMEFRAME, WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE?

* Nobody expects a quick fix in a country beset by a Shi'ite Muslim insurgency in the north, separatist unrest in the south, al Qaeda militancy, a weak state, corruption and a dire economy with 42 percent of Yemen's 23 million people living on $2 a day.

* Donors say it would take a while to gear up and provide assistance mainly because they would need to set up the mechanisms to oversee the distribution of funds.

* One clear outcome of the meeting is that donors all agree that just pumping in more unregulated money or providing more military assistance as they did in the past was not enough. Any more aid will be closely scrutinised and conditioned with the Yemeni government enacting reforms.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has referred to Yemen's governance shortcomings, saying the West should tie strings to aid to President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has ruled for three decades via his northern tribal power base, patronage networks and support in the armed and security services.

"It's more about trying to show international support, create unity, get a common sense of what is needed and what people's capacity to contribute is, and then build a game plan from there," said one U.S. official, who declined to be named.

"Yemen is not a failed state but it's an incredibly fragile state," British Foreign Office Minister Ivan Lewis said.

"We want to get in there early to offer assistance and to prevent Yemen becoming a failed state," he said.



WHAT YEMEN NEEDS TO DO IN ITS FIGHT AGAINST AL QAEDA

"There is an international commitment now to oversee the development of Yemen but donors won't just give money to the government of Ali Abdullah Saleh. They would want to see action on implementation and a serious approach in dealing with al Qaeda," one Arab delegate said.

* One Western demand in Yemen's fight against al Qaeda is for the Yemeni authorities to screen the security forces for possible penetration by al Qaeda, who Saleh had used in the past to fight his own enemies in the south and north.



WORST CASE SCENARIO

* Some Yemen watchers fear that if the separatist movement in the south gathers strength and seeks outside alliances this could lead to a new civil war that could become the regional frontline between Shi'ite Iran and Sunni powers led by Saudi Arabia, which regards Yemen as its backyard.

Yemen last fought a civil war in 1994. "There is real concern now. Nobody wants to see the disintegration of Yemen," one analyst said. (Reporting by Samia Nakhoul, editing by Peter Millership)