Upon hearing of Somali president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s appointment of his adviser’s husband and the alleged financier of his election victory as prime minister, Dissident Nation called Ukash Madar, a Kenya-based analyst on Somali affairs, to help sort out the issues coming out of Somalia today.
Dissident Nation: What is your position and how do your experiences tie into present-day Somalia?
Ukash Madar: I provide security consulting for Western and African firms doing business in Somalia. I’ve spent nearly ten years decoding the events coming out of Somalia as part of my practice.
Dissident Nation: You started out our earlier conversation by placing doubt on this new government. Why do you have such low faith in Hassan Sheikh’s administration?
Ukash Madar: Contrary to popular belief, the president is a partisan leader, and he brings with him an alliance of Islamists known as Dam Al-Jadid, a well-known faction in Mogadishu. Members close to his organization have antagonized other regions and factions in the past, and President Mohamud has taken counsel from even further partisan groups on how to marginalize certain Somali factions and regions.
Dissident Nation: Do you have any examples, or is this hearsay?
Ukash Madar: If you remember earlier in the week, the press reported a story about the president’s planned visit to Puntland. However, after meeting with some of the more divisive members of his advisory team, President Mohamud chose instead to skip Puntland and go to Baidoa, a city which lacks the political organization to play a positive role in his government’s mission. The president was met in Baidoa by an audience of internally displaced citizens who had no interest in his public address, meanwhile neglecting to visit other regions which were prepared to offer crucial political support. He has proven, through his partisan advisory team, that he is less concerned with national reconciliation, and more concerned with party politics. Puntland prepared for weeks to address national issues with the Somali president, yet Hassan Sheikh ignored the region entirely despite receiving his first welcome as president from the leadership in Garowe. The Somali president has demonstrated his unwillingness to represent the entire nation’s interests.
Dissident Nation: So it’s not the president, but rather his party that is at fault?
Ukash Madar: Correct. But in choosing the people he surrounds himself with, the president automatically discredits himself. You can liken it to George Bush Jr. and the role his advisers played in blackening his reputation as president.
Dissident Nation: Does the appointment of a new premier play a role in your bad forecast for this government?
Ukash Madar: Absolutely. Somalia’a new president is inexperienced and toothless, and many people thought he could recover strength in his future administration by assigning an experienced and popular candidate. But the president opted instead to select an unknown and inexperienced personality to join his team. What power does his regime have now to maneuver or bargain for support? Would you support a team which didn’t have its own stadium to play in? One year is a very generous timetable for this government, I would be surprised if they still had destinations to fly within the country after this week.
Dissident Nation: What’s next for this government?
Ukash Madar: Somalis have a word for what will happen next; ‘Mucaarad’ they call it. Opposition. Somalia’s Islamists, even moderates who dominate this government and the one before it, have proven that they are totally out of touch with the political and regional realities of the country. They are on the way out now. I foresee Puntland picketing against this administration, and smaller states like Galmudug, and even the newly-proposed Jubbaland completely locking the government out of their territory. This government will attempt to create new region-states which can support it, but the pressure from currently-established power brokers within the country will break President Mohamud’s government with little effort. If you remember the Transitional National Government of 2000-2002, it was exactly this kind of preferential divisiveness that destroyed it and led to the formation of the Transitional Federal Government which later survived into the current permanent government. Similarly, this new government of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has already made a habit out of divide & conquer games, and it’s playing this game without any experience.
Dissident Nation: What happens after this government falls?
Ukash Madar: There is nothing to worry about, because the international community won’t allow Somalia to slip back into anarchy, and Somalis are too determined and organized today to allow it either. This government will be removed in a quiet reelection that will usher back into power the more popular groups active in the country, and the groups that have achieved some sort of international trust. Expect a coalition of leaders from Galmudug, Puntland, and proponents supporting Jubbaland to organize the government that will replace Hassan Sheikh’s administration.
Dissident Nation: Do you have any further comments about this week’s events?
Ukash Madar: Whoever is leading the opposition against this slow and divisive government will breeze through its dismantling.
DissidentNation.com
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