What will Uganda be like in 2011?

USUAL SCENES: Police brutality is expected if the voting period turns violent. FILE PHOTO  

By Timothy Kalyegira  (email the author)

Posted Sunday, January 2 2011 at 00:00

Forecasting future events and trends is not difficult if one knows the basics. Human nature, with all its unchanging traits, is the constant in human affairs. Timothy Kalyegira predicts what this year has in store for Ugandans.

We can be fore for example that most Ugandans will complain about being short of money through most of January 2011 as a result of overspending during the Christmas 2010 holidays and festive season.
Therefore, based on long-established patterns of behaviour, history, social norms, geopolitical forces, religion and economics, the following is a forecast that can reasonably be expected to unfold in 2011.

The 2011 general election
The biggest news story in Uganda in 2011 will, of course, be the general election. President Museveni has made it clear from 1996 that as a rule, he has no interest in handing power to the opposition.

If FDC/IPC candidate Dr Kizza Besigye were to win the February 18 general election, do we see Museveni and First Lady Janet Museveni warmly shaking hands with the new President Kizza Besigye and First Lady Winnie Byanyima at the front door of State House Entebbe?

However, the main opposition parties have also made it clear that (in Besigye’s case) they will not go to court in the event of a rigged election or (in the case of the FDC/IPC and the Democratic Party) they will tally their own results. Put another way, Uganda in 2011 is headed for an aftermath similar to that which followed the 1980 election.

Whoever wins the February election (especially if it is the NRM), there will be plenty of drama on the national political landscape brought about by the emergence of the private (or independent) candidates in the 2010 election primaries and campaign.Read More