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Max Keiser's prediction that Deutsche Bank is the next Lehman Brothers is proving portentous, if the bank’s latest issues are anything to go by.
The latest Keiser report pulls no punches on Deutsche Bank’s woes. Max, who predicted the 2008 crash, negative interest rates and the rise of virtual currencies, has long described the German bank as “technically insolvent”, pointing to its plummeting shares and its record loss of €6.8 billion in 2015.
A comparison of Deutsche Bank’s share prices to Lehmans' in 2008 shows the German bank is at the point where its shares could become worthless, as Lehmans’ did, although Deutsche Bank is much larger than Lehmans ever was.
Here’s Max with a helpful explainer on Deutsche bank liquidity right now.
And here’s when banks are stressed
The German bank’s shares fell to a record low this week after it failed a US Federal Reserve’s resilience test.
The IMF said Deutsche Bank’s ties to the world’s biggest lenders makes it “the most important net contributor to systemic risks” for the financial system.
Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse shares are down 50 percent and both risk losing their spot on the European blue chip STOXX50 index, according to Societe Generale.
The banks are at risk of a “fast exit” if they fall below 74 on a list of European stocks by the end of next month.
Also on Wednesday, Deutsche Bank’s head of foreign exchange and emerging market debt trading, Ahmet Arinc,announced he’s leaving.
Keiser’s 2009 revelation from inside the Bundesbank that Germany held its gold in New York led to political controversy and the repatriation of gold back to Germany. To him the writing has been on the wall for over a year.
This is what Max said back in January: “They’ve got nothing but debt that they can never pay back. This is the new Lehman Brothers. I told you about it years ago. This is going into the gutter!”
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble’s public claim he’s not worried about Deutsche Bank has only added to the speculation around the ‘too-big-to-fail’ institution.
Describing the global financial system as a game of musical chairs, Keiser says we have reached a moment when the music will stop, “and somebody’s going to be without a chair, and it looks like that will be Deutsche Bank.”
“When this bank goes down, the 2008 crisis will look like a picnic. This is the big enchilada, the big global crisis that will set off the global insurrection against banker occupation.”
Keiser says that the next downturn is coming, “as surely as night follows day”, because nothing was changed after the 2008 crash to prevent another. “All they did was make it possible for a bigger crash to happen in seven or eight years’ time, and that’s where we’re at now.”
He insists Deutsche is “clearly is marked for death” and there are people that will make billions from its death, by betting against it, as they did with Lehman.