Will militants fade after Somali offensive gains?

 

By MALKHADIR M. MUHUMED

Associated Press

Farah Abdi Warsameh

Somali women soldiers march near southern Mogadishu's Villa Biadio, Somalia, Tuesday April 12, 2011, during a commemoration ceremony for the 51st Anniversary of the Somali armed forces. A hard-fought offensive by African Union troops has given the Somali government control of half of Mogadishu for the first time in years, but it's not clear the gains will be leveraged with political alliances to expand the government's reach beyond the capital. Somali politicians hope a stronger military posture might help bring elements of the insurgency to the negotiating table, but Western diplomats say the government can't even manage its existing alliances. The government has an uneasy relationship with leaders of other militias fighting insurgents, fearing they might be rivals for international patronage.

Somalia's most dangerous Islamist group is facing its first serious threat in years following an offensive by pro-government forces, officials and observers say.

Al-Shabab has been beaten back from areas of the capital, Mogadishu, and in regions of southern Somalia. The battlefield defeats are its first major setbacks since it overtook large portions of Mogadishu two years ago.
Since then, the group has appeared to entrench its position in Somalia, enforcing Sharia law, setting up courts and ordering punishments. The group also claimed responsibility for a double suicide bombing in Uganda last year that killed 76 people during the World Cup final.
But experts say the group is not as strong as it may appear.
"Al-Shabab is not that strong. It is divided internally, brutal and ham-handed, deeply unpopular among the people under its control, and not providing anything to Somalis in terms of vision, services, or security," said Jennifer Cooke, director of the Africa program for the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
African Union troops, Somali government forces, and a clan-based militia launched the offensive in Mogadishu and across the south and central regions in February. The government says its forces have made "remarkable military advances," including destroying al-Shabab's front line and retaking key positions in the capital. Continued