The announcement this week of a Somali terror suspect's transfer to U.S. federal court came just after reports of the U.S. drone war's expansion into Somalia.
Both developments highlight the growing U.S. counterterrorism interest in Somalia and raise questions about how it might be expected to impact the country's 20-year-old civil war.
"American strategy in Somalia has not always matched up with the reality on the ground, and at the moment the reality is shifting very quickly there," says David Axe, an independent correspondent and World Politics Review contributor who has reported from Somalia.
A leading concern for the U.S. is the link between al-Qaida in Yemen and Somalia's al-Shabaab organization -- a self-proclaimed al-Qaida supporter and the main Islamic group fighting against the U.S.-backed Transitional Federal Government in Mogadishu.
While the extent of the link between the two groups is the subject of debate, Axe reminded Trend Lines on Thursday that its existence "is something al-Shabaab has said itself, so it's not really a secret."
Typically, Yemenis are "fighting for al-Shabaab because al-Shabaab is paying them," he said. "So even where you see foreigners on the front lines in Mogadishu, they're often in their own units, and there's not really close coordination with the Somali al-Shabaab."
A potentially greater concern for the U.S., said Axe, has to do with young Somali immigrants -- particularly in Minnesota -- being recruited back to Somalia by al-Shabaab. "The fear is that they will return to the United States [as terrorists]," he said.
To date, there are no examples of Somali-American kids going to Somalia, becoming indoctrinated and returning as terrorists. However, that prospect may be a motivating factor behind the U.S. desire to increase drone surveillance and attacks on al-Shabaab.
The drone war's expansion might also be driven by a U.S. desire to disrupt apparent funding ties between al-Shabaab and pirates operating off the coast of Somalia. According to Axe, there are tentative but proven links between the two, with pirates paying al-Shabaab in exchange for protection. "It's disturbing that al-Shabaab has managed to co-opt pirates as a funding source," he said.
It's not clear, meanwhile, whether the drones over Yemen and Somalia are being launched from the same location, said Axe, who noted "the kinds of drones [being used] are Predator drones or Reaper drones, and they cannot be ship-based."
It is possible the U.S. is launching them from a land base inside Kenya, he said.
The likelihood of a resolution to Somalia's turmoil is slim in the near term, added Axe, who noted that internal problems have consistently hindered the ability of the U.S.-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to take control of Mogadishu.
"If the Somalis who are loyal to the TFG want victory in Mogadishu and across Somalia, they have to unify politically and set aside clan differences," he said. He added that so far, "we've just seen a consistent inability within the TFG for people to get along long enough to fight this war and win it."
David Axe is a regular contributor to Wired's Danger Room and blogs at his own War is Boring site.
Both developments highlight the growing U.S. counterterrorism interest in Somalia and raise questions about how it might be expected to impact the country's 20-year-old civil war.
"American strategy in Somalia has not always matched up with the reality on the ground, and at the moment the reality is shifting very quickly there," says David Axe, an independent correspondent and World Politics Review contributor who has reported from Somalia.
A leading concern for the U.S. is the link between al-Qaida in Yemen and Somalia's al-Shabaab organization -- a self-proclaimed al-Qaida supporter and the main Islamic group fighting against the U.S.-backed Transitional Federal Government in Mogadishu.
While the extent of the link between the two groups is the subject of debate, Axe reminded Trend Lines on Thursday that its existence "is something al-Shabaab has said itself, so it's not really a secret."
Typically, Yemenis are "fighting for al-Shabaab because al-Shabaab is paying them," he said. "So even where you see foreigners on the front lines in Mogadishu, they're often in their own units, and there's not really close coordination with the Somali al-Shabaab."
A potentially greater concern for the U.S., said Axe, has to do with young Somali immigrants -- particularly in Minnesota -- being recruited back to Somalia by al-Shabaab. "The fear is that they will return to the United States [as terrorists]," he said.
To date, there are no examples of Somali-American kids going to Somalia, becoming indoctrinated and returning as terrorists. However, that prospect may be a motivating factor behind the U.S. desire to increase drone surveillance and attacks on al-Shabaab.
The drone war's expansion might also be driven by a U.S. desire to disrupt apparent funding ties between al-Shabaab and pirates operating off the coast of Somalia. According to Axe, there are tentative but proven links between the two, with pirates paying al-Shabaab in exchange for protection. "It's disturbing that al-Shabaab has managed to co-opt pirates as a funding source," he said.
It's not clear, meanwhile, whether the drones over Yemen and Somalia are being launched from the same location, said Axe, who noted "the kinds of drones [being used] are Predator drones or Reaper drones, and they cannot be ship-based."
It is possible the U.S. is launching them from a land base inside Kenya, he said.
The likelihood of a resolution to Somalia's turmoil is slim in the near term, added Axe, who noted that internal problems have consistently hindered the ability of the U.S.-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to take control of Mogadishu.
"If the Somalis who are loyal to the TFG want victory in Mogadishu and across Somalia, they have to unify politically and set aside clan differences," he said. He added that so far, "we've just seen a consistent inability within the TFG for people to get along long enough to fight this war and win it."
David Axe is a regular contributor to Wired's Danger Room and blogs at his own War is Boring site.
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