President Museveni does not smoke, so he cannot be accused of puffing away at some dangerous stuff. But listening to him these last several months, one would be forgiven. His statement in Rwanda last week that Uganda is teeming with thieves is the latest in a series of strange presidential utterances.
When the walk-to-work protests over the rising cost of living erupted in the middle of April, Mr Museveni was ensconced in his Rwakitura home presumably enjoying some downtime after a punishing 16-week presidential campaign. The President kept out of sight as the protests gathered pace. His hapless ministers said nothing because they did not know the boss’ views.
When one of them, then Information and National Guidance Minister Kabakumba Masiko spoke, no one listened. Because of the personalisation of power, Ugandans, especially in periods of stress, do not believe they are hearing the official word unless it is from Mr Museveni.
Anyhow, a week after the protests began, Mr Museveni, who had presumably underestimated popular anger as he revelled in his unprecedented electoral victory, called a news conference. He dismissed the protestors and blamed everything on opposition mischief. He rubbished any consideration of tax relief. “Some people have been saying we should remove the tax on fuel, but the tax is small and we need this money to build roads and if we removed this tax, we would be subsidising consumption.” He asked Ugandans to use fuel frugally by, say, not driving to bars.
Yeah, right!
Yeah, right!
The President would go on to say the weak Shilling is good for exporters, a more cherished band than importers. He must have been thinking about Uganda’s horrible trade deficit, poor guy.
“The growth in imports has been much faster than that of exports, meaning that the gap between exports and imports, commonly referred to as the trade deficit, has widened,” the Finance Minister said in the budget speech. “Most of the imports have been for production-related activities to support a fast-growing economy, including increased activity in the oil sector.”
The minister’s little spin about “a fast-growing economy” does not mask the fact. Mr Museveni, somehow, backpedalled. “We, however, need to work out mechanism of stabilising food prices for the urban-dwellers and salary-earners in towns,” he said as he took his newest oath on May 12. Why was that so hard to figure out earlier? The question is not so much subsidising consumption, it is about reaching out to the very poor in a country without social safety nets. In the budget, tax on kerosene was removed and halved on sugar. Nice little move.
One could see, however, that Mr Museveni was struggling to grant relief, having figured that it is bad economics to take panicky and populist moves. But he is a politician, who must sometimes make political calls even when those calls do not make economic sense. It is interesting that he is now insisting, correctly though, on doing the right economic thing yet when it has suited him, he has not hesitated to do the economically bad thing.
Yet we are partly, even largely, where we are not so much because of imported inflation and drought, but because of the government’s profligate spending on non-productive things like creating many new districts. If Mr Museveni has had the political courage to grow the number of districts just ahead of every election to reap votes, he must also show political courage and cut taxes or raise salaries after elections, especially now that people are actually hurting. If an area were denied a district, that would not affect the price of mukene or balugu.
Just when we thought Mr Museveni was getting concerned about the prevailing situation, he mucked up again, demonstrating how tone-deaf he is getting. He took the grand occasion of the launch of his wife’s book last month to announce that a depreciating Shilling does not affect him because he eats local food and is thus not bothered about dollars. Of course, it was tongue-in-cheek. But it was exactly the kind of joke you do not make when the economy is wreaking lives. That is called a terrible gaffe.
Then came the Rwanda pronouncement about thieves being on the prowl in Uganda. It drew prolonged laughter. It was, however, an odd statement for the President to make on foreign soil. Let us remember he made light of corruption during the State-of-the Nation address, prompting opposition MPs to walk out on him – a first. All this would actually be funny if the President did not know who the thieves were. Soon, an image will take hold of an insensitive leader, not a man of the people, who makes fun of their pain. When that moment comes, you know who will be cracking all the jokes.
Mr Tabaire is a media trainer and consultant with the African Centre for Media Excellence
bentab@hotmail.com
bentab@hotmail.com
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